Replies to post #485178 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[boi568]

If things go south in our economy and the dollar drops against the Euro in the next couple of years, that $5,000 estimate should be adjusted upwards.

[falconer66a]

Really Big Numbers — Plausible?

7 million AD patients will be prescribed Blarcamasine at what cost per year.
My guess is at least 2 million and at least $5,000 per year.

Here’s the arithmetic on those numbers (which, as starters) are very plausible.

1. Could there be 2 million Alzheimer’s patients taking blarcamesine in the first year it is authorized for sale and use, most likely to be in Europe?

“In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million.”
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4935104/

So, yes, 2 million European Alzheimer’s patients taking blarcamesine is probably a low number. A more likely total would be around 5 million.

2. Will Anavex Life Sciences Corp sell a year’s worth of blarcamesine for $5000?

That would be a daily cost of about $13.69. 50 mgs of blarcamesine, a daily Alzheimer’s dose (maybe only 30 mgs) may cost about a dollar to manufacture. Add another dollar to encapsulate and package it. Then, a dollar to ship and distribute each day’s capsules. Total cost to Anavex Life Sciences Corp around $3.00. But, be safe and presume $5.00. Anavex would then clear $8.69.

For a year’s treatment, Anavex would then take in $3,171.85 of cleared funds for each patient. Again, be safe and conservative; round that off to $3,000.00.

With annual sales to only 2 million Alzheimer’s patients in Europe, Anavex would clear a total of $6,000,000,000; six billion dollars.

With annual sales to 5 million Alzheimer’s patients in Europe, Anavex would clear a total of $15,000,000,000; fifteen billion dollars.

3. How many AVXL shares will there be?

Right now, Anavex has 85,060,000 outstanding shares. Let’s be conservative and think that by the time blarcamesine is authorized there will be 100,000,000 shares; one hundred million.

4. Per share earnings.

With these numbers, with annual, cleared (“profit”) revenues of $6 billion (from 2 million patients), with a hundred million shares, that amounts to $60.00 per outstanding share.

With 5 million European Alzheimer’s patients taking blarcamesine, that amounts to $150.00 per outstanding share.

5. Potential dividends.

If Anavex clears $60.00 per outstanding share, how much of that would drop down and go out as a dividend? Half of it is not unreasonable; a $30.00 per-share dividend.

If they clear $150.00 per share, half going out as dividends would be a per-share dividend of $75.00.

But, eventually, blarcamesine will be sold also in the U.S. With that, roughly, double all of the above.

And all of that is only blarcamesine for Alzheimer’s. Punch in the conjectured numbers for Parkinson’s disease, schizophrenia, and any of the other future indications.

Lastly, and probably the biggest, will be the numbers when blarcamesine or Anavex 3-71 become commonly, almost universally prescribed and used for geriatric disease and aging prophylaxis, starting in individuals’ middle age.

Lots of digits. Lots and lots of dollars.

[Hoskuld]

Rx, 7m patients is a pipe dream in 3 years. Still, sales will be good. I choose $3b because it is not an insane number and $10b is - at least in the EU alone. Maybe it could get there over several more years. No drug sells more than ~USD8b right now. It is too much to expect that 2-73 will bust that ceiling...at least now. For an investor (and that is what we all are here) $3b is a good number (it is awesome but makes the uber longs unhappy so it is pretty close to perfect.)