Replies to post #820508 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

As for no precedential power - you couldn't be more wrong. The verdict clearly indicates the NWS breached the shareholder agreement. We've been through this before. This makes future breaches LESS likely, not more likely.

Yes, we have been through this before, but you are the one who has things wrong here.

Jury verdicts have no precedential power in other circuits or in other cases, and the fact that the NWS was found to have breached the implied covenant means any actions taken by FnF afterwards that don't harm shareholders relative to the NWS not a breach themselves because Judge Lamberth said reasonable investor expectations are set as of the most recent change in the contract (which was the NWS itself when it comes to future alleged breaches).

I don't think you understand how to account for something new happening. Your methods must only rely on what you have seen in the past?

Nope. None of my scenarios are exactly what happened with AIG, which means this accusation of yours along with your insistence that the FnF and AIG situations are different are logically contradictory. Pick a lane.

If you think you know what is most likely to happen, great - place your bets.

Already done.

You aren't convincing anyone that you have a more accurate prediction method.

You can only speak for yourself. It appears you don't just put words in my mouth, you do it to others too.

[kthomp19]

In the end, you're doing the same thing you have done for a long time which is to try and score cheap points via name-calling and technicalities while avoiding an actual pricing model.

It's just another form of hypocrisy on your part. If you think your model is so much better than mine, post it. If you don't, you have no business criticizing mine. Time to put up or shut up. List out your scenarios with probabilities and price targets for each and do an EV calculation. A fourth-grader could handle the math.

Of course, you could always go the other way and spout out more bullshit about how nobody knows the future and thus all models are useless. It's about what I expect at this point, even though it's totally false as evidenced by the existence of the insurance and gambling industries.