Contrary to your post, most company share valuations by analysts are based upon NPV calculations. I suspect that the current $40 analyst estimates that are now in place are using the NPV model.
Of course, there are assumptions in any valuation model, and I agree that non revenue companies are more difficult to formulate a valuation, nevertheless analyst need to begin somewhere and NPV valuation models are the most common.
The biggest assumption in the modeling that I put forward is the assumed EMA approval. Using the 80% probability of EMA approval, that I'm most comfortable with, that suggests an NPV of approx. $30 based upon the same EPS 5 year estimates.
One has to use some kind of modeling and NPV modeling makes the most sense to me.
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