Replies to post #121566 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[SSKILLZ1]

MCB

I couldn't help myself I added a little more in the 57's today. This is my favorite bank I own (Own also COLB and INBK), the consistent growth in both loans and book value is so impressive and the fact that this stock trades at a discount to tangible book to me seems waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too cheap. I fully expect earnings to be north of $7 this year and well north of $8 next year, with nims improving, and solid asset quality, I continue to believe this will be a $100 stock in the next 12 months, so I will continue to add on weakness. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

[SSKILLZ1]

MCB

Didn't love this MCB Quarter. There expenses were significantly higher than I thought. And I think according to them expenses will be around 45 million or so the next three quarters is my understanding so I expect higher expenses in the coming quarters. NIM will increase slightly, but not much from here, I had it going out about 3.80%, now I have it at 3.75% exit rate. Furthermore they took more provision than I thought they would. Now 1 million plus this quarter was thanks to a specific loan, but most was thanks to loan growth which is fine, but if they are gonna increase loans again that means provision is gonna be higher than I expect as well. End result is instead of $7, I now expect about low 6's right now. Keep in mind this quarter also had a 800k one time gain I believe I heard in other income as well which I would ex out. So quarter is about $1.40 which was down y/y. Loan growth was good, deposit growth was also good, think comps are not gonna be great in 2025, and that is also a concern, hence it is gonna get a lesser multiple in my opinion 10x times $6=60 even if we round up to book value, the stock doesn't have enough upside here even in the $65 range. Hence I sold and onto the next. I like so many banks better at this point after this quarter. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.