MCB
Didn't love this MCB Quarter. There expenses were significantly higher than I thought. And I think according to them expenses will be around 45 million or so the next three quarters is my understanding so I expect higher expenses in the coming quarters. NIM will increase slightly, but not much from here, I had it going out about 3.80%, now I have it at 3.75% exit rate. Furthermore they took more provision than I thought they would. Now 1 million plus this quarter was thanks to a specific loan, but most was thanks to loan growth which is fine, but if they are gonna increase loans again that means provision is gonna be higher than I expect as well. End result is instead of $7, I now expect about low 6's right now. Keep in mind this quarter also had a 800k one time gain I believe I heard in other income as well which I would ex out. So quarter is about $1.40 which was down y/y. Loan growth was good, deposit growth was also good, think comps are not gonna be great in 2025, and that is also a concern, hence it is gonna get a lesser multiple in my opinion 10x times $6=60 even if we round up to book value, the stock doesn't have enough upside here even in the $65 range. Hence I sold and onto the next. I like so many banks better at this point after this quarter. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
AI
