Triple, problem is, Amarin does not share revenue forecasts, so it's impossible to know what the uptake is/will be in each of the dozens of countries we are approved in. We've seen extremely slow uptake in Canada, UK, and Spain. Outside of that, we have no other real revenue to analyze. It does not look like China will have any meaningful revenue (maybe next year they get reimbursement approval, then a few years of rollout), Italy's requirements are so restrictive, and they still have to go through the process of approval in all of their regions, which will likely take another 12-18 months (will probably resemble Canada's provincial rollout), France is not approved, and it ain't happening in Germany.
They also don't break out cost structure in Europe, so we really have no idea what costs on the P&L are born by Europe vs. those that are U.S. specific. We also don't know if there will be additional overhead in any of the European countries as rollout expands.
So, it's almost impossible to predict what will lead to positive cashflow.
Again, lack of transparency by Amarin makes evaluating the company nearly impossible. All we get is CEO after CEO robotically stating "we will continue to expand approvals overseas, both in Europe and with our partners around the world".
Their execution is a f'ing joke. Look at all these other CV drugs and other new drugs crushing it around the world. Meanwhile, we keep slipping further and further into the abys.
I don't have any issue with Vascepa. I have an issue with Amarin and Sarissa. It's like they are trying their hardest to make the company as unattractive as possible.
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