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Hoskuld

01/20/25 5:24 PM

#481090 RE: imho #481088

I think, probably, that what we saw is a fairly typical JPM hangover. This swoon happens like clockwork every year. And it kind of makes sense because there is such a big build up to presentations containing info that "the market" is already aware of. And no one should have expected a partnership - I think I wrote as much before JPM in response to someone that thought it was possible.

Things everyone here already knew:
1. the content of the JPAD paper
2. the OLE trial abstract and conclusions

Things we didn't know:
1. the 3-71 P2 trial is adding more patients
2. we will get an update on the P3 PD trial within 2 weeks

So the huge things were known. There was no more juice to squeeze there.

The unknown things are hard to value because we don't know how many more patients they are adding and the update hasn't happened yet.

Still, any downturn here will be temporary because inexorably the days of the calendar fall and after ~210 of those that correspond to working days, there will be a decision on the MAA. And that decision is highly probable going to favor Anavex 2-73. At minimum there were be a significant run up at the end of the year - but will it start this Summer when we get 3-71 readout? It could.
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frrol

01/20/25 6:02 PM

#481093 RE: imho #481088

Good example of why biotech is not for everyone. Be careful, and good luck.