Bigworld, Well, so far so good with the stock market. Only one day though, and the big test will come as the Trump tariff plans are further clarified. One good thing for the bulls is that Trump's ego makes him sensitive to the stock market direction, and he knows that going big on tariffs will tank the market for sure.
Btw, I put my toe in the Bitcoin waters, although just $480 in the Blackrock ETF (IBIT). A tiny amount, but I might decide to go up to $1000, which would be the max allowable. Cryptos are being given the green light, not just by Trump and his team, but also by the SEC last year when they allowed all these new ETFs to start trading. I figure the Fed is also happy to see crypto expansion since it's their sneaky way to build out the 'plumbing' required for their eventual CBDC. The build out will happen over the next period of years, and then something happens (crisis) and they come to the rescue with the CBDC (under the guise of a 'Stablecoin'). Rickards mentioned the 'Stablecoin' bait + switch scenario last year, though not in much detail. I figure the Bitcoin price might run up for some time, but investors / speculators will need to get out sometime prior to the big rug pull / crisis that justifies the Fed's Stablecoin replacement. Probably not for a number of years though.
Fwiw, in addition to the small Bitcoin position, I also raised the stock allocation back to 17% (from 15%), so will go with that for now. A pretty conservative allocation, but still some dry powder available (up to 25%) if the market starts to 'melt up'. That wouldn't be too surprising if Trump doesn't actually 'lower the boom' with mega tariffs. The markets could take off with a sizable relief rally. There's probably a lot of pent up demand out there waiting for the 'coast is clear' signal. But on the other hand, if Trump does go big with the tariffs, we could have a real mess in the financial markets. So never a dull moment..
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