Replies to post #480540 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Steady_T]

Short answer.... A year away from approval.

[MycroftHolmes]

Re: Pre-Revenue Biotechs: A Monty Hall Game

Short Answer: Share price is driven by time until a cash event, not the company’s intrinsic value.

Long Answer:
In free markets, price is usually a fair indicator of value. For example, in a typical Monty Hall game show, you pick Door #1 and find out the result immediately—there’s little time for others to influence your choice.

In biotech, however, the prize behind the door is a “cash event” (partnership, acquisition, or product revenue), which may be 5–10 years away. This long timeline creates an opportunity for other players (traders / manipulators) to exploit fear and hype.

As a result, the same company with a milestone tomorrow trades very differently from one a decade away from revenue. The farther the gap, the greater the uncertainty—and the more the share price diverges from fair value.

If you’re shooting for a 30x return, volatility is unavoidable. A low share price reflects uncertainty about when cash will materialize, not the quality of the underlying science. The key is to focus on the research and maintain a long-term perspective, tuning out short-term noise.

The share price, in most cases, is irrelevant until the company is closer to an actual cash event.

I’d point out that even the most bearish shorts on the board (assigning a 4% chance of success) are making a surprisingly bullish statement.

A 4% chance of success only requires a 25x multiple on investment to break even. Even the skeptics agree that a successful drug would result in $25B market cap.

Thus most "short" arguments are implicitly ceding that this is a bet with quite a positive expectation. (and that is the analysis of the BEARS!)

What more encouragement does a pre-revenue biotech investor need? 😉

Cheers

Mycroft Holmes

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

please educate me --with this "peer review"--finally published and great OLE data---why is not "the street" buying in here?? Please don't say "manipulation"

Never been a fan of the manipulation theory in the long-run. My view is that it is lack of knowledge by most of the Street combined with lack of certainty of approval. Say $100 a share after approval, 50% chance, 80% unaware, probably explains roughly where we are. Most fund managers dont know this company exists, or dont understand the product or opportunity. Or their fund is not allowed to invest in a stock with no revenues or earnings.

[rx7171]

The grave yard for companies that tried to slay AD is full of their corpses.

To bet on any tiny company that promises to finally do it is thought a very long shot that has already buried legions of investors.

General skepticism is a very rational response considering this history.

Now we have the peer reviewed article that backs up our claims plus a successful application to the EMA
which historically has a 90% probability of approval more eyes should now come our way.

Before we get new buy recommendations from the big investment houses I assume they will advise their inside clients to stock up before they make their recommendation.
My guess in a few weeks we will start back up.

I just bought a couple of thousand more myself close to the low today.