Replies to post #3858 on Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[dewophile]

Your fall 2023 post aged well but I still disagree with the logic at the time bc it leaned on the 200 debt which I still maintain is an accounting artifact.
I agree this year something has to give either a deal or restructure as an immunology company with lower burn. They shouldn’t move RSV into phase 3 by themselves even though they have budgeted for it in their cash runway projections
Happy new year

[InefficientMarket]

With tax loss selling season over, let's see if we get a stock price bounce in next couple weeks. If not, no real reason to think a turn around will happen until the partner/sell/refinance occurs. I am not willing to take that risk now.

Appreciate the thoughts but other than cash your analysis effectively discounts all other assets such as retained royalties and Zelicapavir - just to name two. If you’re not willing to “take the risk now” in what situation would you ever be comfortable investing in a biotech if that is your investment risk threshold?

I do concur with your thoughts regarding the litigation. I think the Judge got it right and prefer they walk away from this case because appeals can also be very expensive. In my opinion, It was never a strong case to begin with. Think the following passage is the most difficult to overcome on appeal: the “Court cannot say that substituting a C1 for a C2 alkyl is sufficiently minor that the Court even has the authority to make this correction because the parties do not dispute that if Enanta’s patent only covered C2 alkyls, that range would not cover nirmatrelvir as Enanta contends that nirmatrelvir contains a “—NHC(O)-C1 alkyl” which is a “—NHC(O)-C1-C12-alkyl.”

Happy New Year to all who contribute here - will go back to lurking now.

[Rocky3]

From Fall 2023:

annual decrease in shareholder equity - down to $216,735K from $321,334K last year. With the decreased expenses projected next year, the reduction should be less, but if the loss from operations is still $80M, instead of $133M, net worth might be ~$135M after 09/24.



Actual number as of 9/24 for shareholder equity was $128,814K. Again, expenses should be lower in next 12 months since at least lawyer fees should be reduced since appeal should cost less than preparing for trial. But by 9/25 shareholder equity will probably be around $50M. With "debt" being non recourse, probably won't have "going concern" issue for a few more quarters after 9/25. But pressure to partner/sell/refinance will mount each and every quarter. And whatever bargaining power they have may disappear.

We are now six months later. Shareholder equity now at $93,538K (less than $5/sh). Expenses have been cut, so 9/25 equity will probably be in $60-65M range, not around $50M. Still needs to partner/sell/refinance soon. It will have spent ~$260M of equity in 3 years with not much to show for it. Would not be surprised if it hits 3s before it hits 7s. Of course any sort of partner/sale could send it to the races (but that has been true for last couple years).