Replies to post #430995 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[JRoon71]

Sleven,
1. Cost of Goods sold will increase as we continue to lower pricing to compete. I was not referring to the "raw" cost, but rather the cost of good sold as a % of revenue. In other words, as we reduce pricing, we cannot reduce the associated COGS. There is also the potential for increased costs due to import tariffs, but it's too soon to tell what, if any, impact there will be.

2. If you look at the erosion in market share on the chart that management shared (pg. 43), the market share dropped dramatically in the past quarter or two (hard to tell from the chart because it was not labeled well), and is quickly approaching 50%. And it seems that (only anecdotally) that more insurers have dropped V from their coverage.

3. It seems that RoW revenue will surpass U.S. revenue quite soon. But you have to consider magnitude. Next quarter (this quarter) I would expect to see revenues of roughly 25M/15M (US/RoW).

4. There will be little success in China without national reimbursement. I can even point to this article (among others I read): https://healthadvances.com/insights/blog/winning-the-china-market-a-review-of-nrdl-inclusions
And given it's retail price, the uptake will be insignificant (for private pay).

So, that's sort of it. I just don't see where the revenue is going to come from.

This is why I think the new formulation is critical, as it would allow Amarin to drop the price (half the # of pills), and lower their COGS (roughly half the cost, I assume).

I have mentioned numerous times, that I think the new formulation is the only real way out for them. So I don't think it's an entirely lost cause. Because they MAY have some plans up their sleeves that we are not aware of.

I am just not confident in the CURRENT articulated plan.