Sleven, I think what most people are missing is that running a small, one-drug pharma company is not economical whatsoever. As a start-up, sure. But we haven't really been a "start-up" for years. We commercialized 10 years ago. They threw a hail mary at R-It and scored 5 years ago. We are now a has-been, teeny one-drug company with dramatically falling revenues.
Maybe someday they will be profitable. But the trajectory of revenue growth outside of the U.S. is anemic. And there is not going to be any type of revenue "explosion" at some point. Look at Canada, UK, Spain. Virtually the only countries we have any revenue outside of the U.S. The growth has been abysmal. Ignore "percentage" growth. Because percentage growth on top of zero looks great. Look at dollars.
We recorded revenue of $30M in the U.S. last quarter. That's a 50% drop year-over-year. And it's only going to get worse.
In Europe, we had a grand total of $4M in revenue among the TEN countries are approved in.
In Canada, China, and RoW, we had a grand total of $7M in revenue among the 20 or so countries we are approved in.
Cost of Good Sold is up to 62%. That is DOUBLE what it was in prior years. And this is going to get worse as well, as we have to continue to drop pricing to maintain any market share in the U.S., and gain reimbursement approvals in other countries.
Our market share is going to drop below 50% in the U.S. this quarter.
Without national reimbursement in China, revenues will be modest at best, and at a royalty of around 10% (we only go higher with significant revenues), actual income to Amarin will be modest at best for the next several years. How long do you think it will take to get to $100M in revenue in China? That will be $10M in revenue to Amarin. Someday.
My point in all of this is, we are running out of runway. It does not appear that gently rising revenues outside of the U.S. is enough to offset the falling revenues in the U.S., and our gross margins are shrinking rapidly on the revenues we DO have.
There is ZERO chance of being profitable in the near future.
So, the question is, what next? Management and the Board have not articulated any sort of plan that indicates a sense of urgency, or anything that will outrun our our current run rate.
Maybe they really DO have a plan, and they just aren't willing to share it yet. Boy I hope so. Because otherwise, this thing will get sold eventually in a fire sale.
But, this is what shareholders voted for.
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