Replies to post #500173 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[janice shell]

I would not be surprised if it turns out to be bigger than that. I doubt you realize how much we despise him.

He makes my flesh crawl.

[blackhawks]

And I wouldn't count on your analysis of what you post. From the top link in your post.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gender-gap-decide-2024-election/story?id=115272924

The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%.

A 538 analysis of national polling crosstabs in October from its most highly-rated pollsters found the average gender gap was slightly wider: 10 points for Harris among women and 9 points for Trump among men.

That is on par with historical norms. The gender gap has averaged 19 points in presidential exit polls since 1996.

Some observers, though, believe it could reach a new level in 2024.

"With a woman versus a man at the top of the ticket and with the prominence of the abortion issue in the wake of the Dobbs decision, we could have a historically large gender gap approaching a gender chasm this year," Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, told ABC News.


"I think you can't underestimate the power of the abortion issue," Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster, told ABC News.

That's especially true, Lake said, among younger women. Harris has an overwhelming lead (40 percentage points) among women ages 19 to 29 compared with Trump's 5-point advantage among men in that same age range, ABC News and Ipsos found.


And while he leads with white women, the largest voting bloc in the U.S., Trump is only edging out Harris by 4 points: 50% to 46%. (Trump won white women by 11 points in 2020 against Biden.)

Turnout will be key
More than 75 million Americans have voted early, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab.

Women are outpacing men in early vote turnout, the data shows, 54% to 43.6% as of Sunday. That is in line with past elections, including in 2020 when women made up 53% of the electorate.

But Democrats see optimism in the margins.

"There's just simply more women in the electorate and they turn out to vote more," said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who worked on several presidential campaigns. "If you add in their preference for Harris over Trump, this should be very good news for Harris."