Steven, that is a very good question, when will announcements on some deals occur and what might be holding them up? Michael Lebby forecasted deals (probably smaller ones) with the Dec 4 shareholder letter. He would not have done that unless they were very close, so some sticking points have been in the way. The number one such point would be the money LWLG expects taking into account polymer sales but also getting reimbursed for their patents. It is not easy to come to an agreement on the value of a patent portfolio that includes patents on the manufacture of devices using Lightwave's polymers. Think patents related to ALD and wafer scale poling among others. There is no additive chemical I can think of that raises the value of the device as much as Perkinamine does. It raises questions as to who pays, the foundry, the transceiver company or the end user? It is typical for that to be the company that does the final sale of the devices. There is no template to work off as to how to do this although I would think how Universal Display monetizes patents offers some guidance. It would be too complex to license select patents as well as a poor choice for the company as it would lead to too much confusion and disagreements over the value. Disagreements over prior art would come into play around some patents that could drag out a number in order to license the whole portfolio. A final value (like a percentage of the sale price) could be close and that could be the sticking point.
Another question is what about the transceiver maker? Since we have no information that is more than just speculation, the transceiver makers would be an important piece to a final contract. That could be the holdup even if tentative numbers have been agreed upon and an agreement is based on sampling success.
Is it a timing issue that transceiver makers and their customers have a set timeframe in mind that pushes out sales and as a result a final contract? Is there a MOU in place that an agreement in principle exists and it will be triggered by a set time or an event?
Are data centers demanding more data or more time with samples or money concessions?
If LWLG will be selling transceivers themselves they need the manufacturing contracts in place with the foundries and transceiver makers and the final price of devices will be between LWLG and customers.
I don't have the answers to my questions. The company has brought on some very smart people that can help with commercialization especially negotiating for full value of polymers being added at the foundry level. I take heart in that Michael Lebby keeps saying they are on track for this year so I believe he knows something we don't.
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