Replies to post #199926 on Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[MarcoPolo4]

Thanks proto for periodically posting the limitations of TFLN for next generation modulators/transceivers. It is important as TFLN keeps coming up as the major competitor to polymers for newer devices.
I have trouble seeing the emergence of TFLN as anything more than a small piece of the market as I look at the specs and current problems with size, optical loss and especially supply.

Supply is a very big issue as has been noted. Relying on China to supply TFLN freely in the coming years seems questionable as China has its own needs for a next generation solution for optical modulators/transceivers and their government will make sure supply is a China first anyone else is last (as it is likely China is not receiving LWLG polymers for future use).
Most of the research articles on TFLN seem to come out of China and I am sure China likes the efforts outside of China to solve TFLN issues which could speed its integration into devices and its functionality. What would stop them from pulling the plug on supply based on competition for supply or as a leverage with the U.S. over other issues. We run that risk with rare earth materials as well.

Manufacturers who are evaluating TFLN devices must be looking to the future with some caution, after all manufacturers want to sell as many devices as they are able. Their customers are also eyeing TFLN and other options like polymers and they very much want supply to be available when they want it. Supply shortages for high tech equipment is common and can disrupt the normal operations of end users. The AI rollout will create a much larger than normal need for upgrades.

So with TFLN's issues it appears LWLG is further along in development. The current 800 G transceivers will have 8 modulators and will be functional so with competition, supply will be there when needed but these devices won't meet data center goals of faster, lower power, smaller size, lower cost and 4 lanes. It will be up to LWLG and partners to be ready to meet the need based on those parameters and not miss the excellent sales that will happen over the next 2-3 years.