The price weakness tells the story. You don't have a chart that looks as bad as this for as long as it has if they are on the verge of something great. Anyone with decent reasoning ability can listen to the ASM q&a and see why.
Newbies, don't let Proto's enthusiasm and exaggerations - going on 12 years now - fool you. He's missed too many times to count.
The right perspective comes from looking at the facts:
A whole year has passed since "reliability data" was supposed to have been final and Tierprathy announced that the greatest moment in the company's history was upon us.
The company is averse to discussing reliability issues and problems with shareholders. They are scared to tell us the truth.
Dangle the carrot folks.
They aren't working with 'many' foundries. "multiple" doesn't mean "many".
Only 1 foundry is sending back 200mm wafers, and it's a small struggling forward-looking one.
They aren't commercially ready, which is why they are running another 6-9 months cycle as we speak.
They appear to be using a shotgun approach trying out many different possibilities to get something that sticks and is good enough. There's no telling how many more cycles it may take.
X's speculation that a given foundry is sending wafers every 2 weeks or month (that's what he said a couple of days ago), doesn't work with the math. Lebby said 'somewhere in the middle' of 5-50 wafers in a year, which likely means several 200mm wafers from AMF runs 4-5 x a year, and a couple of other small optic-oriented foundries sending non-200mm wafers once or twice a year. On avg they prob get wafers delivered from foundries once every couple of months as opposed to weeks.
Anthony Yu's slight smile doesn't look like a smirk or mock of TFLN to me - he looked and sounded totally unbiased when talking about the materials. Of course he's going to mention polymers to Jose - who is a big supporter of Michael - no surprise there.
No 300mm wafers have been produced from GFS yet that Lightwave has announced, so who knows what stage that is in? Ther Fotonix initiative has progressed as slow as molasses.
TMSC and Samsung are the big foundries you want to be in, but they seem to have no interest.
Longs only have connect-the-dots with other companies in the space that use similar buzzwords (like Coherent - whose 800 was announced months ago), and rumors started from the least credible source next to proto - Marcelli himself.
Really all an investor needs to do to get a better handle on their status and proximity to commercialization is to pay close attention to what Dr Lebby said at the ASM - especially in the Q&A. That's why the stock immediately sold off. Some people actually got it. For those still struggling or for any newbies, It's all spelled out in the new red flags sticky.
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