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Replies to post #86755 on Tesla Inc (TSLA)
SURPRISE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Forecasters were surprised yesterday, June 28th, when a CME struck Earth and caused a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm. The CME was expected, but the severity of the storm was not; it was supposed to be a minor G1-class event.
When computers go wrong, we tend to assume it's just some software hiccup, a bit of bad programming. But ionising radiation, including rays of protons blasted towards us by the sun, can also be the cause. These incidents, called single-event upsets, are rare and it can be impossible to be sure that cosmic rays were involved in a specific malfunction because they leave no trace behind them.
And yet they have been singled out as the possible culprits behind numerous extraordinary cases of computer failure. From a vote-counting machine that added thousands of non-existent votes to a candidate's tally, to a commercial airliner that suddenly dropped hundreds of feet mid-flight, injuring dozens of passengers
Plus, since giant ejections from the sun can sometimes send huge waves of particles towards Earth, what's called space weather, an unnerving prospect looms: we could see much more disruption to computers than we're used to during a massive geomagnetic storm in the future
An investigation by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau found that, prior to the erratic behaviour of the plane, erroneous computer data in the on-board systems had misrepresented the angle at which the aircraft was flying. This prompted the two automated nose-dives. As for what actually set off this chain of events, the report noted: "there was insufficient evidence available to determine whether [an ionising particle altering computer data] could have triggered the failure mode" – meaning that it remains a possibility. In contrast, all the other possible triggers considered by investigators were judged as "very unlikely" and one other as "unlikely".
With the rise of self-driving car technology, it's possible that computer systems on these vehicles could malfunction due to cosmic rays. What if, during an automated trip, imagery from a camera mounted at the front of the car became corrupted and the on-board computer failed to spot a person walking out in front of the vehicle?
However, the research is yet to be published and he says he's not allowed to reveal what the starting level of accuracy was during the experiments.
Such interventions could make self-driving cars of the future safer but they wouldn't eliminate the possibility of a cosmic ray causing other problems. And this raises an interesting conundrum for insurers.
"In a world of fully autonomous vehicles, how can you prove the accident happened because of cosmic rays?" says Rech. "That is very challenging. I mean, it's impossible, by definition." In ambiguous cases, disputes over whether a human or technology manufacturer – or space weather – was at fault might be difficult to resolve
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