Replies to post #461178 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Robot14]

$18k per yr is going to be too high. More like $10-$12k per yr in US.
In Europe, looks more like $3k - $5K a yr.
But i get your point, even at these projected costs the eventual revenues ( and SP) will be huge.
2M patients in US & 2M patients in EU get about $26B in sales. minus taxes, overhead, partnerships, with a very conservative 30% profit gets us to about $7.8B.
divided by 100M shares = 78 with a PE of just 15 brings us a SP of almost $1200 (MC of $117B).

Thats only 4M patients out of the 12M in US & EU. not including the ROW.
All predicated on FDA & EU approval in mid 2025. im still adding at these prices.

[falconer66a]

Understand, All of the Following Is SO Wrong

If Anavex wanted to do the world a favor, they would price A2-73 right at half the cost of the mab drug overall cost per patient. And that cost would be $50.00 per pill.

No, the Alzheimer’s mabs will be far more than $50 per dose. Hundreds.

But, what if blarcamesine is approved for Alzheimer's and a single dose a day yields symptomatic relief? What if Anavex charges $50 for a day’s dosage?

First, how many Alzheimer’s patients would be taking the drug? Use a low estimate: 1,000,000 patients, a million of ‘em.

How much per year, then? Each patient would be paying $50 x 365 = $18,250. With a million patients Anavex would be taking in $18,250 x 1,000,000 = $18,250,000,000. $18.25 billion of revenues each year.

But what will it cost to manufacture a day’s dosage of blarcamesine? It's a small, easy to make molecule. Most likely for nothing more than $5.00 per dose.

Each patient then pays $18,250; for which it cost Anavex 365 x $5.00 = $1825 per patient per year to make the drug.

What will it cost Anavex to package and deliver its pills each day? Five bucks is reasonable. So, another $1825 per patient per year cost.

With these metrics, Anavex is spending $3650 per patient per year, but taking in $18,250, a net gain of $14,600 per patient.

But, of course, as the Anavex operations experts here have told, lots of those dollars will have to be used to pay excessive salaries for the 42 employees sitting around all day doing nothing in the New York offices. Could those unaccounted-for costs be $10,000 per patient per year. If so, Anavex clears $4,600 per patient per year; so with a million patients Anavex has revenues of 1,000,00,000 x $4,600 = $4,600,000,000. $4.6 billion.

Let’s then presume by the time all of this happens (WAY out in the distant future) that there will be 100,000,000 AVXL shares in circulation. One hundred million. Then presume that only one tenth of corporate revenues would be dropped down to go out as dividends.

One-tenth of $4.6 billion = $460,000,000.

$460,000,000 divided among one hundred million shares is a dividend of $4.60 per share.

A 10:1 price/earnings ratio gives an AVXL share price of $46.

Of course, as the real ANAVEX experts here tell us each day, except for the 42 lazy, over-paid employees, every one of these metrics is wrong, and ANAVEX will never be able to get a single drug approved for any disease.