Replies to post #658 on Biotech Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, With Acurx, hopefully partnering interest is as keen as it sounds.

One thing with the reliance on ATM funding is that Luci will likely sell some shares whenever the stock price gets a pop. Investors know this, so this could mute the periodic bounces. Luci seems very averse to dilution, and is raising small sums incrementally via the ATM. This approach has its advantages, but it could also adversely affect the partnering and M+A terms by keeping the stock price muted.

On the clinical side, one problem was the lack of availability of key durability data announced back in Jan. It turned out that only 5 of the 15 Ibeza patients from the Phase 2b had agreed to be followed longer term (!) This is a big problem since the durability data is so key in showing Ibeza's main advantage over Vancomycin (lack of relapses). The 5 patients who agreed to the follow up analysis didn't relapse, which is good, but what about the other 10 Ibeza patients? Presumably there's no way to get this missing data, but I'm figuring these patients could at least be contacted on the phone by Acurx and/or interested pharma partners, and asked about their symptoms, whether the GI distress had returned, etc. So not exactly hard data, but still very useful anecdotal evidence of durability.

The clinical side is also clouded by the fact that one of the Ibeza Phase 2b patients failed on efficacy (1 out of the 16 Ibeza patients). Meanwhile, none of the Vancomycin patients failed on efficacy (0 out of 16). So this is a red flag, and when announced in early Nov the stock was cut in half.

Another problem on the clinical side is that in the follow up durability data in Jan, all the Vanc patients who had agreed to be followed longer term showed no relapses (7 out of 7), which was the same as Ibeza (5 out of 5). Durability is the key theoretical advantage for Ibeza, but unfortunately this could not be demonstrated by such a tiny Phase 2b, made even tinier because so many patients had refused to be followed longer term.

So lots of unknowns, but Luci's recent comments sound hopeful that there will be significant partnering interest.




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