Copying my response from Reddit…
Now that’s interesting.
I saw him make very similar comments in a private exchange with a shareholder a couple weeks ago. He basically said that he’ll shout from the rooftops the day he hears a top engineer from a Tier 1 validate LWLG’s technology.
That day is coming and I look forward to hearing Mark’s opinion. Even though he’s generally known as a contrarian journalist. He’s been a vocal opponent of LPO and yet the industry continues to move on in that direction.
At least Mark acknowledges the need for better modulators ie TFLN in his case.
Jimmy’s comment on that LinkedIn post is spot on. Why TFLN when EOP can (and is now confirmed to be) be applied inside a CMOS foundry. That is true scale. LWLG’s modulators are smaller and have lower drive voltage. TFLN either requires a dedicated foundry or complicated etching/bonding/growth processes.
I’ve seen Mark’s comment about Ciena using TFLN before and I’m not sure he’s correct. While I’m not 100% sure which product he’s referring to from Ciena, their latest WaveLogic 6 uses InP EAM as the modulator.
In any case, the market is big enough for all technologies to exist. It’ll take years to see who gobbles the largest market share.
LWLG cannot announce their Tier 1 deal soon enough. We know it’s coming. Just don’t know when.
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