Yeah you just never really know. I think Amazon may have been around $2-3 a share in 2000, I can't really remember exactly, but I remember at the time thinking "OK that's cute, book delivery from online, but can't anyone do that?"
It comes down to management in a lot of cases - here you need that PLUS the tech. We shall see! I agree on the Nvidia thing. You can buy it now at $903 a share and over a $2.2 trillion market cap, but there's no guarantee it will go to $22 trillion market cap in 2 years so you get a 10X return. Could this go to .001 in 2 years for an $18 million market cap before that one goes to $22 trillion MC? I think it's a decent chance. Any individual stock is gambling - just ask people who bought Enron, MCIWorldComm, KMart, Radio Shack, Blockbuster, and so on. There's never a guarantee that you'll stay a blue chip forever. It's why people put the overwhelming majority of their savings into a 401K, Roth IRA and/or mutual funds.
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