Replies to post #250229 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

(VIR)—I consider an exercise-and-hold transaction in which the insider pays the income tax with cash (rather than forfeited shares) to be comparable to an open-market purchase in terms of bullishness. In one sense, an exercise-and-hold is even more bullish than an open-market purchase insofar as an exercise-and-hold can legally be executed even when the insider is acting on material non-public information.

How long or to what future price would you consider this action "bullish"?

The bullishness is inherent in the transaction itself, so it applies irrespective of future share-price movement.

…he can't sell and collect a profit for a regulatory period, but beyond that?

The insider who exercised these options can sell the shares whenever the trading window for insiders is open. There is no mandatory six-month waiting period as there is with a buy/sell round trip.