Biden said to be increasingly frustrated by dismal poll numbers
In one recent meeting he said poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it
"Beware Economists Who Won’t Admit They Were Wrong"
By Tyler Pager December 18, 2023 at 5:00 a.m. EST
President Biden walks from the Oval Office to Marine One on the South Lawn on Nov. 14. (Sarah Silbiger for The Washington Post)
The guy presides over a super economy and still.... Whatever happened to "it's the economy, stupid." Almost a year to go, surely more than enough will wise up.
The night before President Biden departed Washington to celebrate Thanksgiving on Nantucket, Mass., he gathered his closest aides for a meeting in the White House residence.
After pardoning a pair of turkeys, an annual White House tradition, Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled: His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it. He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
For months, the president and first lady Jill Biden have told aides and friends they are frustrated by the president’s low approval rating and the polls that show him trailing former president Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination — and in recent weeks, they have grown upset that they are not making more progress.
“We do not discuss the President’s private conversations one way or the other,” Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, said in a statement. “The President and first lady meet regularly with their senior team for updates and to review plans.”
Since that November meeting, which has not been previously reported, most polls continue to show Biden trailing Trump nationally and, more importantly, in key battleground states. The accumulation of troubling polls for Biden has made it harder for Democrats to dismiss them, leading to a fresh set of conversations among Biden officials and allies about whether the president and his team need a shift in strategy. And now Democrats in competitive races are growing increasingly worried about Biden damaging their own electoral prospects.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who is running for the state’s open Senate seat, has expressed concern to allies that she may not be able to win her race if Biden is at the top of the ticket, according to people familiar with the conversations. A spokesman for Slotkin’s campaign said she “looks forward to running with President Biden.”
“As Congresswoman Slotkin has often said, Michiganders care about results, and no one can argue with the results we see in Michigan: dirt is moving and plants are being built and expanded because of Democrats’ legislative accomplishments under President Biden, including the CHIPS Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law,” Austin Cook, the spokesman, said in a statement.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) at McCurdy Park in Corunna, Mich., on Oct. 8, 2022. (Emily Elconin for The Washington Post)
Biden officials have grown accustomed to Democratic anxiety about their every move and the state of their campaign. They routinely point to comments made by lawmakers, donors and pundits who declared Biden’s 2020 primary campaign over when he was routed in Iowa and New Hampshire before he went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
VIDEO - Republicans tie Biden probes to 2024 campaign 1:14 Over the past two years, congressional Republicans have suggested that investigations into President Biden and his family will benefit them politically. (Video: JM Rieger/The Washington Post, Photo: Craig Hudson/The Washington Post)
But now Biden’s approval rating has tied his record low, standing at 38 percent with 58 percent disapproving, according to a Washington Post average of 17 polls in November and December. Voters, including a majority of Democrats, are particularly concerned about Biden’s age and consistently rank it as a bigger problem for the president, 81, than Trump, 77.
In the states, recent polls from CNN .. https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/politics/cnn-polls-trump-biden-michigan-georgia/index.html .. found Biden trailed Trump in Michigan by 10 points and in Georgia by 5 points. In early November, New York Times-Siena College polls .. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html .. found Biden trailing Trump in five of the six most competitive battleground states: Trump led Biden by 10 percentage points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona and Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Biden led Trump by two in Wisconsin, albeit well within the 4.8-point margin of error. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in all six of those states, though by very narrow margins.
“I feel the same way I did in 2015 and 2016,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said. “There’s work to do.”
She added: “Next year is going to be a very competitive race. The country is angry.”
On Sunday night, the president and the first lady stopped by the campaign’s headquarters in Wilmington, Del., to have dinner with campaign staff. The two spent roughly an hour there, chatting with staff — the president also joined some FaceTime calls with family members — and eating Italian food.
The president, in brief remarks, told his staff that the election was bigger than him and about the future of the country’s democracy, according to a person familiar with his comments.
When leaving the offices, Biden told reporters who asked why he was losing to Trump in the polls that people were reading “the wrong polls.”
Publicly, Biden campaign officials and Democratic allies have downplayed the polls, telling supporters to largely ignore them. They argue the election is still almost a year away and polls are not predictive of the results, but rather a snapshot of the current moment. They say most voters are not paying attention to the election yet, and the polls will change once the race becomes a clear choice between Biden and Trump.
Only recently, though, have Biden officials started to scale up the campaign, which they launched in April, after months of warnings from top Democrats in battleground states that they were too slow to build out their operation. Since Thanksgiving, the campaign has announced leadership teams in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and South Carolina and more staffers are slated to be announced before the end of the year, campaign officials said.
“The Republican primary could end quickly, and the general election could begin in weeks, not months,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “Given Trump’s noisiness and his ability to bully his way through the daily information wars, I think it’s really important that the Biden campaign move into general election mode as soon as possible. We’re not where we want to be. Some of our coalition is wandering and we need to go get them back.”
Biden campaign officials point to their close collaboration with the Democratic National Committee, arguing they had a head start in building a national campaign apparatus. Since Biden was elected, the DNC has continued to invest in battleground states, including a recently launched pilot test of its 2024 organizing strategy in Wisconsin and Arizona.
“We are methodically and strategically building the infrastructure we’ll need to activate the broad and diverse coalition of voters that sent Joe Biden and Kamala D. Harris to the White House, and are confident that the full campaign apparatus that builds off three years of significant investments at the DNC will be a powerful force to defeat whatever MAGA Republican we face next year,” TJ Ducklo, a spokesman for the Biden campaign, said in a statement.
One bright spot in recent weeks for Biden has been his fundraising operation. People familiar with the effort say they are optimistic they will hit their target of $67 million for the final quarter of 2023, typically a difficult time to raise money because of Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Recent polls from CNN found Biden trailed Trump in Michigan by 10 points and in Georgia by 5 points (Tom Brenner for The Washington Post)
Over a 36-hour period this month, the Biden campaign raised over $15 million in Southern California alone, the people said. The massive haul came after Democratic candidates, including Biden, had stayed away from fundraising in Los Angeles because of the nearly four month actors strike, which ended in early November. While in California, both the president and first lady attended star-studded fundraisers, with Lenny Kravitz performing at one with the president and Chrissy Teigen and Kerry Washington hosting an event for the first lady, with a guest list that included actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
And last week, top Biden donors gathered at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in Washington, formerly the Trump International Hotel ..
[This is nothing Washington has ever seen. For the first time in presidential history, a profit-making venture touts the name of a U.S. president in its gold signage. And every cup of coffee served, every fundraiser scheduled, every filet mignon ordered feeds the revenue of the Trump family’s private business.] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/trump-hotel-business/?itid=lk_inline_manual_41 ,
for a national finance committee meeting where many rejoiced in taking over a space that a few years ago was the favored watering hole of Trump officials and allies during the former president’s term.
“The last several weeks have been remarkably successful,” Jeffrey Katzenberg, the movie mogul who is a longtime Democratic fundraiser and national co-chair of Biden’s campaign.
Now Democrats in the battleground states say they want to see that money in action.
Former congressman Conor Lamb (D-Pa.), who attended the president’s fundraiser in Philadelphia last week, said Biden’s campaign needs to activate the party’s network of grass-roots supporters.
“In the minds of many Democrats, we campaigned on a set of ideas in 2020, and we went into office and executed on them,” he said. “We feel like we have a good story to tell, but that doesn’t seem to be registering yet.”
He said many Biden supporters are in “a state of paralysis” over how to get involved in the campaign and improve the president’s standing.
“I think a lot of activists feel that everyone they know is happy with the president,” Lamb said. “They’re not understanding who is in the majority of the country that is dissatisfied and what to do to change their minds.
He added: “A lot of us are looking to the campaign for leadership on how we’re going to overcome that together and what role they need us to play.”
Emily Guskin and Scott Clement contributed to this report.
The Soft Landing Is Global, but It’s Cushiest in America
"Beware Economists Who Won’t Admit They Were Wrong Dec. 18, 2023"
That's one trait of Krugman's i've enjoyed from the start, he admits when he's wrong. I don't recall ever seeing one of our many illustrious trolls admit they have been one.It's weird that they won't, then again Trump doesn't. Please tell me if i'm wrong on the trolls. ;-)
Related: [...]JPMorgan’s Dimon warns inflation, political polarization and wars are creating risks not seen since WWII NEW YORK (AP) — The nation’s most influential banker, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, told investors Monday that he continues to expect the U.S. economy to be resilient and grow this year. But he worries geopolitical events including the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, as well as U.S. political polarization, might be creating an environment that “may very well be creating risks that could eclipse anything since World War II.” [...]Because of these issues, Dimon said he is less optimistic that the U.S. economy will achieve a “soft landing,” which he defined as modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates, compared to the broader market. While he says the investors are pricing in a “70% to 80%” chance of a soft landing, Dimon thinks the chances of such an ideal outcome are “a lot less” than that. P - Also, at a time when some investors and economists are questioning whether the Federal Reserve can make good on its projection for three interest rate cuts this year, Dimon warned of the possibility of rates rising to 8% or higher. The Fed’s benchmark rate is currently in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174198357 .. and .. B402, Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's [...]He pointed out that European countries have seen not only a bigger increase in prices, but also a greater propensity for businesses to pass them on to consumers. P - "Both of these factors have helped U.S. inflation moderate to a faster extent than in many countries, especially Europe," he said. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174333343
Economies all over the world are lowering inflation while avoiding serious recession — but growth in the United States stands out.
Americans have only slowly spent down the savings they amassed during the early pandemic years, so the money has continued to trickle through the economy like a slow-release booster shot. Amir Hamja/The New York Times
By Jeanna Smialek, Ana Swanson, Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley
Reporting from Washington Feb. 2, 2024
The world is starting 2024 on an optimistic economic note, as inflation fades globally and growth remains more resilient than many forecasters had expected. Yet one country stands out for its surprising strength: the United States.
After a sharp pop in prices rocked the world in 2021 and 2022 — fueled by supply chain breakdowns tied to the pandemic, then oil and food price spikes related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — many nations are now watching inflation recede. And that is happening without the painful recessions that many economists had expected as central banks raised interest rates to bring inflation under control.
But the details differ from place to place. Forecasters from the Federal Reserve to the International Monetary Fund have been most surprised at the remarkable strength of the U.S. economy, while growth in places like the United Kingdom and Germany remains more lackluster. The question is why America has pulled out ahead of other developed economies in the pack.
The I.M.F. said this week .. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/imf-global-economic-outlook.html .. that it expected the United States to grow 2.1 percent, a sharp upgrade from the previous estimate of 1.5 percent. Other major advanced economies are also expected to grow, albeit less quickly. The euro area is expected to notch out 0.9 percent growth, as is Japan, and the United Kingdom is forecast to expand by 0.6 percent.
“This is a good situation, let’s be honest, this is a good economy,” Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said at a news conference this week — two of nearly 20 times that he called the data “good” during his remarks.
America’s outperformance has come from a combination of luck and judgment, economists said. Below is a rundown of some of the factors behind the comparatively strong performance — starting with those that reflect policy choices and moving to factors that owe more to fortune.
One reason for U.S. resilience: fiscal policy.
Part of the reason that economic growth has been so surprisingly strong in the United States is simple: The American government has continued to spend a lot of money.
Government expenditures as a share of overall output hovered around 35 percent in America in the years leading up to the pandemic, based on I.M.F. data. But in 2020 and 2021, they jumped above 40 percent as the government responded to the coronavirus with about $5 trillion .. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/11/us/how-covid-stimulus-money-was-spent.html .. in relief and stimulus to people, businesses, institutions, and state and local governments.
Both states and households have only slowly spent down the savings they amassed during those pandemic years, so the money has continued to trickle through the economylikea slow-release booster shot. On top of that, government spending has remained elevated as the Biden administration has begun to make sweeping infrastructure and climate investments.
“As the economy recovered, the U.S. just poured more kerosene onto the fire,” said Kristin Forbes, an economist at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a former Bank of England official.
Ms. Forbes noted that America’s deficit as a share of its gross domestic product .. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT@FM/ADVEC/FM_EMG/FM_LIDC .. is larger than that in many other advanced economies, and today’s spending is adding to the American debt pile. Given that, strong growth today could come at a cost — including higher interest bills — down the road.
Administration officials have suggested it was worth the trade-off.
Lael Brainard, who heads President Biden’s National Economic Council, told reporters last week that the combined outlays had allowed families to “weather this really disruptive period of time and bounce back.”
--- [Insert: Yes, but not as much and in different ways. See again: B402, Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's [...] High inflation has been a painful experience for many Americans and has shaped their view of how the economy is faring. But a strong jobs market has helped disposable income, which is the engine behind consumer spending. P - The unemployment rate in the US has been below 4% since February 2022, which is on a par with historic lows. And while prices climbed steeply, real wages have risen too. Low-income households have seen some of the strongest real wage growth. P - The US has also enjoyed a productivity spike in 2023, growing at its fastest pace in years. [...]Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, points to the flexible labour laws which allowed companies to slash workforces at the start of the pandemic. This produced short-term pain for workers but allowed companies to adapt to the moment and invest in new technologies. [...]The European approach favoured paying companies to keep workers on their payrolls when lockdowns crippled businesses. The UK furlough scheme paid employees 80% of their wages and lasted more than 18 months. P - The US had more severe unemployment as a result but laid-off American workers were eligible for newly-expanded unemployment benefits, which sent cash directly into pockets. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174333343] ---
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs,said that he believed that the gross domestic product data — which can be volatile and gets revised — could be overstating the divergence between U.S. growth and those in other countries. But to the extent that there is a gap, he does not think government spending has been a big driver of the stronger U.S. performance over the past year.
Instead, a number of economists said, what is happening could owe partly to policy design differences — and luck.
Pandemic layoff responses were not created equal.
During the beginning of the pandemic, America paid workers to stay home. Bob Miller for The New York Times
America took a different approach than its European peers when it came to how it designed policy relief for workers displaced by pandemic shutdowns: It paid workers to stay at home, with one-time checks and expanded unemployment insurance, whereas countries in Europe paid workers to stay in jobs.
The resulting churn as Americans have sorted themselves into new and better jobs could be leading to the stronger productivity growth that the United States is seeing now, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
Ahead of time, “it was not clear which was going to be the better way to go,” Mr. Posen said, noting that many economists had worried that the U.S. approach would actually perform slightly worse. “As always, it is better to be lucky than to be good.”
Proximity to geopolitical problems is also important.
Other advanced economies have also fallen victim to misfortune. European countries have been much more exposed to the aftershocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a conflict that has pushed up gas and grocery prices — roiling the business environment and limiting households’ abilities to afford other discretionary products.
While the United States imported relatively little .. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51738 .. oil and gas from Russia, that was not the case for Europe. According to a 2023 survey .. https://www.eib.org/en/publications/20230285-econ-eibis-2023-eu .. by the European Investment Bank, 68 percent of European Union businesses had seen their energy prices increase by 25 percent or more, compared with 30 percent of U.S. businesses experiencing the same increase.
Speaking to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Tuesday morning, Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner for trade, said that Europe had been working to address its dependence on Russian fossil fuel, but that cutting those ties “came at a cost.”
Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the I.M.F., told reporters on Thursday that the resilience of the U.S. economy stemmed from several factors — including insulation from volatility in global energy markets.
“There have been good economic forces and winds blowing into U.S. sails,” Ms. Georgieva said.
Now, tensions in the Red Sea that are roiling shipping routes there could have bigger spillover effects for Europe. The disruptions have started to push up shipping prices .. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/24/business/red-sea-attacks-shipping-costs.html .. and delay deliveries, particularly for goods traveling to Europe from Asia.
Biden administration officials are monitoring those disruptions, but they are less concerned since they are “a little bit less salient for American supply chains than for other parts of the world,” Ms. Brainard said.
Demographics play a role.
When it comes to the absolute level of growth in the United States versus advanced economies like the euro area and Japan, America also has the benefit of a younger population. The median age .. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/median-age/country-comparison/ .. in the United States is about 38.5, whereas it is 46.7 in Germany and 49.5 in Japan.
For the E.C.B. and the Bank of England, slower growth could make that an especially delicate process — policy errors could tip those economies from slight growth to slight contraction. But completing the soft landing is a looming challenge for many central banks.
“At this time of the cycle, there is risk of premature loosening, but there is also risk of keeping interest rates higher for longer,” Ms. Georgieva said. “They now need to land the plane smoothly.”
Jeanna Smialek covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for The Times from Washington. More about Jeanna Smialek
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade. More about Ana Swanson
Alan Rappeport is an economic policy reporter, based in Washington. He covers the Treasury Department and writes about taxes, trade and fiscal matters. More about Alan Rappeport
Jim Tankersley writes about economic policy at the White House and how it affects the country and the world. He has covered the topic for more than a dozen years in Washington, with a focus on the middle class. More about Jim Tankersley A version of this article appears in print on Feb. 5, 2024, Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Economies Worldwide Can’t Match U.S. Growth. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe
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