Replies to post #705 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Looks like the inflation numbers have provided the green light for Wall Street to pile back into stocks. Bonds and metals are also surging today, and the US dollar down big.

The CPI was 3.2%, and core PCE 4.0%, so better than expected, though still well above the Fed's stated 2% target. In the past, Rickards said that the Fed actually wouldn't mind somewhat higher inflation (higher than 2%), since this is a form of 'debt repudiation' of the national debt (ie inflating it away). However, that was before the big surge in inflation in recent years, so not sure what the Fed's actual inflation goal is now. The 2-3% range might be the best they can hope for.

Fwiw, with the big surge in bonds today, I exited that ill-conceived LT Treasury trade (VGLT), and managed a small profit. The LT bonds might continue to rally (?), but that LT Treasury auction last week saw eerily weak demand, so I figured I'll stick to the shorter term buy/hold strategy (1-3 year maturities), and not try to get too clever with it. Trying to trade stocks is hard enough, but with bonds I have very little experience or knowledge, so best to avoid trading. And as you said, holding 30 year Treasuries really makes no sense as a longer term strategy, so no sense getting stuck with them.

Looks like that 3X SQQQ approach is turning into a disaster, so you might also want to get back into a more conservative strategy. The old saying goes - 'the more you trade, the more you lose', and I learned that the hard way over the years. Plenty of cuts and bruises along the way, hence the appeal of a more conservative approach.





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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Looks like Acurx recently received $2.2 mil from the exercise of warrants, per the recent Q3 press release (next post), and that $2.2 mil was received after Q3 ended. Those warrants must have been from an earlier financing, since the May 2023 warrants can't be exercised until Nov 18. The cash level at the end of Sept (Q3) was $7.1 mil, so better than I expected, and add to that the additional $2.2 mil --> so $9.3, which is pretty good :o)

And more cash may be coming after Nov 18 when the warrants from the May 2023 can begin to be exercised. I'm figuring a burn rate of approx $1 mil per month, although expenses might be somewhat 'lumpy', but the company is in better financial shape than I thought, especially if more warrant exercises are forthcoming after Nov 18. It figures that Luci would be reasonably on top of things cash-wise, since he's a finance guy.

Anyway, should be a very interesting period ahead, with the longer term recurrence and microbiome data coming, pharma discussions likely underway, etc. Next I'll check out today's conference call replay, so will see what additional insights can be gleaned. A poster on the Acurx board had this message today -- >>> Institutional investment has increased! NDA signed with multiple suitors <<< -- which I assume must have come from the conference call. If true, then great news :o)



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Here's some additional info from the Acurx conference call. Luci said that the durability and microbiome data from the Phase 2b will be released as the company gets it in the weeks and months ahead (see below), rather than all at once at the end. Here is his approx timeline for the news flow -

Dec ------------ Sustained Clinical Cure data
Dec or Jan --- Extended Clinical Cure data up to 94 days
Jan or Feb --- Impact on Microbiome data
March --------- End of Phase 2 meeting with FDA

On the partnership / M+A front, Luci said they have some NDAs (plural). As I understand it, an NDA is a Non-Disclosure Agreement, which (I think) allows sharing of non-public info like clinical data between Acurx and interested pharmas.

Luci has clearly said (in July) that he favors an M+A or partnering deal prior to the Phase 3s, and from the conf call it sounds like this process will advance in 2024 as the additional data becomes available. So a lot will probably depend upon the strength of the upcoming durability and microbiome data, the number of interested pharmas, etc.

With the Phase 3s, they will need two, and Luci said they are favoring (if possible) a smaller first Phase 3 trial, and then a larger second Phase 3. The first Phase 3 would be approx 200 patients (133 getting Ibez and 66 getting Vanc), and would likely cost in the $20-25 mil range, and will include some international sites, and will be a non-inferiority trial. He said the advantage of a smaller first Phase 3 is that it would be cheaper and faster, and should provide more than enough data to get an M+A or pharma deal (assuming good data of course). Ideally though, Luci said (in July) that he prefers doing a deal prior to Phase 3.

On the funding / cash side, he said they now have $9 mil range, and up to $15 mil potentially coming from the exercising of warrants. Luci says he wants to proceed - 'as non-dilutively as is humanly possible'.

Concerning the Pasteur Act, he said that he isn't expecting anything happening soon (is awaiting Congressional approval) since the government is currently in such disarray.

Anyway, this info is from my notes, so you may want to verify by listening to the conference call -

877-660-6853, and conf call code is - 13742354



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