Crescent, I do not share your perspective on a double hit. I can claim that I already had my "once in a lifetime investment lottery ticket", but I have every expectation of having a second.
AD kills by two companies I am invested in would be out of this universe lucky.
A long time ago, when at Monticello track in the Catskills, an older individual stated "never bet two horses to win, because one has to lose". Valuations are prognosticated on market share and drug pricing/cost, so the first to cross the finish line (pun intended) gets the bulk of the scripts to knock out the submarginal SOC. IMHO, SAVA will be there first, and the data so far and with super responders will not be surpassed by AVXL.
That said, if Rett gets approved, you will have your double win, but possibly not the full valuation you are expecting. I have SAVA exit at $300, but Rett as an orphan designation is probably in the $20 ballpark. I still have expectations that simufilam will get conditional approval, long before the two phase 3 trials are completed. The FDA will not condemn the 800 placebo patients to a degradation of cognition of 5.5 points in the next year of trial, when the last simufilam data showed an avg degradation of 0.1 in 18 months
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