Replies to post #163663 on Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[spartex]

Lebby text from interview: If my understanding is correct, and he sees the TAM over the next 10 years for these transceivers is 100 million units. I just looked at cost of current 800G transceivers (optical) and they are $8000. Even cutting that price in half (assuming Lightwave and bring the price down considerably without the driver chips) that would be 100 million units X $4000 = $400 Billion over a 10 year period. I remember in a different interview posted by Proto that Dr. Lebby said Lightwave will get the lion share of the market, or something like that. So even if Ligthwave gets 50% of the market, and then what dollar amount will they get for these licenses per transceiver? The key, as Dr. Lebby has said, is to be ubiquitous, and thereby they don't have to make everything with 1 partner; they can license, royalties, or even manufacturing partnership but key is to accelerate the adoption (acceptance; becomes a must have product). Maybe need KCC's calculation estimate sheet to refresh my memory, but things will really rip in the 3-5 year commercial window imo.

And as we drill into some of the details there, this is just the Datacom Transceiver Market, which is a subset of one of those greens. You can see in blue, this was a data reported by Coherent earlier this year.

The 800G market is going to explode because of the impact of AI. There's supposed to be a huge market in data com, telecom, that's driving the next generation performance and our modulators fit nicely into that opportunity; and you can see here, this is general artificial intelligence is driving rapid deployment of 800G solutions.

And as these guys, this is IDC, you look at this market, it is growing in the next two or three years. 2026 is $11 billion market, and it's already estimated at least 20% of that is going to be taken up by 800G transceivers, which is pretty fast growth.

And in fact, when we started looking at TAMs from our perspective, I mean, as you look out over the next decade, this is over 100 million units. The blue line is the 800G, which is the one I just talked about; and then following that pretty quickly is the 1600, which is a higher speed.