Do we finally have some final packaged device reliability tests, or not?
Packaged modulators testing
minute 30 A respected poster has suggested the thermal testing graph labeled "packaged parts aging test" is on external foundry produced devices, and that this is a sign that they had achieved "initial chip scale production" goal in the December 2022 slide, and were getting the final result via a transceiver partner. That is possible, but all the company has confirmed is that it is on polymer modulators, and that company polymer modulators are made in foundries..yet we know they have in-house capability to make polymer modulators...in any case, it could be on the Polymer Stack modulators, which this same respected poster has posted he believes will be first to market. Those are stand alone with a far smaller target market, and are not the focus of the foundry work with Polymer Plus and Polymer Stack. If the Polymer Stack is first to market, as the poster believes, why wouldn't those also be packaged and tested first? This poster to my knowledge hasn't yet addressed this question.
In any case, EVEN IF they are getting some packaged results on Polymer Slot or Plus, EVEN IF some customers are even testing those results - if the scaling just isn't there and the specifications still are too low, it is of little assurance. Some posters say "we have nothing until we have everything". This is true, as is "we have nothing until we can have a quality product to produce at quantity", which still may be years away if ever.
The same respected poster above said that they should get to 2000 hours of thermal testing which would be the industry standard by what would be sometime in Aug or Sep of 2023 As this is written the ECOC presentation was 2 days ago and the company should have had results up to 3000 hours.
So, what was presented?
9000 hours of photostability, no detail about what was tested
4300 hours of photostability against 1. change in voltage and 2. optical loss on a package of 8 modulators
2500 hours of device thermal stability against change in voltage for 12 packaged modulators
250 hours of thermal stability against change in r33 comparing burned in and non-burned in for 2 samples of 6
The variance in hours and number of modulators tested raise questions about what we are looking at, and whether the best test results have been chosen out of more than one test each.
The company stated in the 2023 ASM that there would be an increase of testing in 2023. Based on the messaging and including at ECOC so far, investors are left wondering how many other tests need to be performed before customers are truly 'satisfied' enough to want to test out the devices themselves.
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