Replies to post #4156 on Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[Emannow]

The RVNC sales force is now rolling out additional price discounts to large accounts who purchase both Daxxify and RHA which is the top concern of large multi location practices/MedSpas. These companies are all about net profit! They now get a lower price for both..these large volume discounts are just being rolled out in the past few days.

Their profit revenue per hour will increase significantly when they switch to Daxxify versus other toxins and RHA is priced lower than competitor products!

RVNC is getting more aggressive with pricing.

[vinmantoo]

Vinman, RVNC is going up, against a very experienced, very professional, established salesforce. They have faced competitors before and fared very well.

Ian, thanks for your comments. However, I believe you are missing the point a bit. There is a saying that past performance is no guarantee of future success. The competition ABBV/Allergan faced before was with products that offer no improvement/difference to Botox except price. Daxxify is different as it has extended longevity of effect.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see RVNC in the $10-$12 range again. To the extent that its salesforce is able to deliver product to end customers and the end customers see the significant advantages that due diligence does, substantial price gains above the 30s are definitely possible.

At this time, there’s still uncertainty.

The market is often irrational so I wouldn't rule out any price drop. If such a drop happened I would load up. I have no idea what RVNC price will close at today, the end of this week, this month or by year end. As far as uncertainty, yes but you could say that about ANY stock or the stock market in its entirety. If someone wants certainty, then they should just invest T-bills or T-bonds. Approval in CD means prospects are bright and growing brighter. If most people are unable to see that yet, so be it as it means I can take advantage of that short-sightedness.

[Dennboy66]

Revance will get sales people with neurology and movement disorders MD contacts. I didn't find it to be a big deal that they had long standing Botox rep relationships. We were still able to get meetings. On the most part, these MDs are about patient outcomes. Now that doesn't mean that the MD consultants for botox will change over or allow even allow a meeting. There are some that protect their outside income source. But, with the sunshine act in which all MDs income from industry is listed on line, the income has reduced significantly. Many companies have put caps on what each MD can earn from them.

Here is the webpage where you can see how much each MD makes from industry.

https://openpaymentsdata.cms.gov/

When I worked for a neurotoxin company the reps would utilize this sit to see how "hard" it was going to be to get a meeting with the MD. The more they made from Allergan as a consultant usually translated into how hard it was to meet with them.

The reason why botox has "fared very well" is that the most MDs utilized what they are most comfortable in dosing. They like known outcomes. Still, many will be compelled to meet with Revance reps as this is the first time that a new toxin has come onto the market with the value prop of longer duration. They will also love that it is not refrigerated.

Revance will find reps with strong relationships at the huge movement disorder hospitals like Stanford, UCSF, Cleveland clinic etc. They may even co-promote with another company that already has the relationships with no conflict of interest.

[IanFromSI]

In the message that I am responding to, I predicted a price in the $12-$10 range. I did not expect that before tax loss selling season this year.

At this time I have no idea where the bottom might be or when it might get there. While I had intended to sell naked puts that were already ITM with a view to establishing a full position in RVNC, I no longer believe that this is a reasonable investment. Rather it’s a very risky speculation.

Nevertheless, I do hope that those who’ve established long positions fare very well. however, Foley is a bigger risk then I had anticipated, and may be more of an obstacle than a blessing.

IMO
Ian