LLY-NVO-VKTX- While NVO has a great position today, it is Lilly that is really shining with Orfroglipron (a daily oral GLP-1) and Retatrutide (an injectable GIP/GLP-1/Glucagon Receptor Triagonist). The phase 2 results for both of these drugs are very impressive. That combined with Lilly's current injectable Mounjaro makes Lilly look like a winner.
The jury is out on whether VKTX may be able to compete with its dual GLP-1/GIP compound. Phase VK2809 results at 12 weeks were impressive for VK2809 as an injectable. They are currently running a phase 1 oral study for this compound and have are looking to start phase 2 on this drug as an injectable. Results for LLY's new drugs are at 26 weeks and no 26-week data is available for Vikings drug yet. The fact that VK2809 does not have activity for glucagon may make it safer than Retatrutide and as an oral, we may find out it is more effective than Orfroglipron.
Obesity along with Type 2 Diabetes is a major cause NASH. If these new drugs reduce obesity/better control Type 2 Diabetes , it follows that fewer people will develop NASH and the addressable market could be significantly smaller than previously thought.
These new obesity drugs are having a negative effect on the prospects of all of the companies with NASH compounds. MDGL/AKRO/ENTB /VKTX are all down significantly as a result. (VKTX is getting hit not only on NASH but on competitiveness concerns with their obesity drug).
MDGL which is the most advanced is down approx. 15% today at the time of this post.
Factoids—VKTX lost ~$2B in market cap today, more than 3x as much as VKTX’s 2-day market-cap loss on 6/26/23-6/27/23, when LLY released phase-2 Retatrutide data—even though the Jun 2026 selloff was a much larger proportion (27% vs today's 19%) of the share price.
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