Replies to post #247747 on Biotech Values

[jbog]

While Altimmune is in the basement, it's seeing a little upside because of it's GLP-1/Glucagon Dual Receptor components.

To all the Viking holders, I had Alt last year as it released data similar (no worse) than Viking and the stock went from $3 to $23 in no time. The market then took it right back to $3 over a couple of months. Alt did run a stupid trial that helped the decline.

[Mufaso]

NASH- WSJ "Heard on the street column" today comments on obestity drugs and their effect on the NASH market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/obesity-drugs-wont-starve-these-other-potential-blockbusters-bfe0182d

The author notes

• that several NASH companies MDGL/AKRO/ENTB and VKTX all fell after doing well in the last year when Lilly announced retatrutide results.
  
• that obesity drugs that may make the overall NASH market smaller as a preventative measure, they won't address fibrosis.
  
• points out that the obesity/type 2 diabetes drugs will likely be used in combination with NASH drugs.
  
• Lots of patients can't tolerate Obesity drug side effects.
  

Here are some key quotes:

While in theory a reduction in liver fat early on might mean there will be fewer patients with liver complications to treat, the idea that one class of drugs can displace other approaches to this disease afflicting about 5% of Americans seems far-fetched.

For starters, the obesity medications haven’t yet demonstrated that they can reduce the scarring in the liver known as fibrosis, explains Liisa Bayko, an analyst at Evercore ISI. That is an important measure because such scarring can lead to complications such as cirrhosis. Crucially, Madrigal and Akero studies, for example, demonstrated a reduction in liver scarring.

What is more, says Bayko, plenty of patients can’t tolerate obesity-diabetes drugs, with side effects including diarrhea and vomiting. And about 10% of NASH patients are actually skinny. NASH drugs are likely to end up being given in combination with drugs for weight loss for many patients, she says.

The author summarizes at the end:

Hyperbolic headlines heralding the end of obesity aside, the weight crisis will be with us for some time. That means there will be plenty of room for an array of medications that can treat liver complications.