Replies to post #144884 on Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[prototype_101]

that's easy ted, Lebby put up the most ultra-conservative estimates he could possibly muster while keeping a straight face, the scale up could occur much more rapidly though based in the dire Industry need for it today, normally any new technology in this Industry is introduced to market as follows

- Low-Rate Initial Production Run (LRIP)
- LRIP Reviews/Assessments
- Full Production and Implementation

in the case of LWLG those rules may bend quite a lot based on the "pull" from the Amazon's and Google's of the world

also note those projections are for the market for ONLY one vertical and product, it's for 800g/1600g Transceivers at 1310 for DC's, these are not projections for Telecom applications at 1550, these also exclude any other verticals such as LIDAR, sensing, etc, also note that these number exclude any lower DC speed implementations, LWLG could very well do 4x100 for 400g in some of the DC's as well

btw also note the following >>

“with Dr Lebby's own projection of 7,900 units in 2024 and 78,000 units in 2025?”

Those projections were made by a third party, not Dr Lebby. They could be way off depending on how fast Perkamine is accepted/needed by the market.

[jealmc79]

“with Dr Lebby's own projection of 7,900 units in 2024 and 78,000 units in 2025?”

Those projections were made by a third party, not Dr Lebby. They could be way off depending on how fast Perkamine is accepted/needed by the market.

[XenaLives]

Please quote exact statement and source this alleged comment...

Since you believe Tier1s with 100,000+ transceivers are involved, how do you square Dr Lebby's comment along with the strong Tier1 relationships (in your belief) with Dr Lebby's own projection of 7,900 units in 2024 and 78,000 units in 2025

[prototype_101]

that's easy ted, Lebby put up the most ultra-conservative estimates he could possibly muster while keeping a straight face, the scale up could occur much more rapidly though based in the dire Industry need for it today, normally any new technology in this Industry is introduced to market as follows

- Low-Rate Initial Production Run (LRIP)
- LRIP Reviews/Assessments
- Full Production and Implementation

in the case of LWLG those rules may bend quite a lot based on the "pull" from the Amazon's and Google's of the world

also note those projections are ONLY for the market of one vertical and two specific products, it's for 800g/1600g Transceivers at 1310 for DC's (presumably based on the Licensing Agreement announced), these are not projections for Telecom applications at 1550 (Telecom market is just as HUGE as Datacom!!), these also exclude any other verticals such as LIDAR, Sensing, Defense, Medical etc, and these also exclude any lower DC speed implementations, LWLG could very well do 4x100 for 400g in some of the DC's as well

I'll guarantee you Lebby low-balled the SOM two ways 1) focused it on only 1310 DC 800gbs/1600gbs (presumably based on the Licensing Agreement announced) and 2) he said as things progressed (ie additional Licensing & Tech Transfer Agreements) he expected LWLG to be able to increase the SOM percentage

2024 will be the ramp year as Lebby already told investors, and based on what I noted above I'd expect maybe at least a doubling the units shown (with or without additional Licensing & Tech Transfer Agreements!!), but it could also be 100k units or more, I'm just not going to predict it, at least not yet, let's get a couple more Licensing & Tech Transfer Agreements rolling and then perhaps I'll be more apt to want to bump those numbers up some more

Also NOTE: The TAM's were based on a LightCounting Market Report, the SAM's and SOM's were from Lebby (presumably based on the Licensing Agreement announced)

$5.4 billion for optical transceiver market by 2027 - LightCounting
https://www.lanaotek.com/news/show/id/28#

Here is a link to the ASM presentation, the discussion on the slides pertaining to TAM/SAM/SOM starts at the 17:30 marker, at the 19:45 marker Lebby details his percentage assumptions used to arrive at the given SAM/SOM projections (again, presumably based on the Licensing Agreement announced)

Based on these assumptions, and the likely potential for several more Licensing & Tech Transfer Agreements in the near-term, I believe it is safe to assume LWLG will be at least at a BREAKEVEN by the end of 2024, which would mean the LWLG is basically FULLY FUNDED currently with Cash on the Balance Sheet!!