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Replies to post #5029 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
05/08/23 9:10 AM
NY Gold Futures closed today at 20248 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. As of now, this market has been rising for 5 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 20854 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 19659. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 19991.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. Even so, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. Even so, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 20246 and overhead resistance forming above at 20288. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 1st at 20854, which was up 26 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 20854 to 19857. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 1st reaching 20854 has exceeded the previous high of 20634 made back during the week of April 10th. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 19965. Additional support is to be found at 19450. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 5 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 18920 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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