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spec machine

04/11/23 3:16 PM

#12090 RE: littlejohn #12072

LJ, sorry for my delayed response

A heap of high priority responsibilities (and my recent shift to mostly cash) has my DD mostly on a low flame

I was able to listen to the EGY CC finally and a couple of my questions about Egypt were covered

The ~$51M “modernization fee” appears to be the mechanism to get paid the receivable (by offset) that TGA had going into the merger

The market is either seeing something that I haven’t or EGY is getting hit with the overall downdraft in global macroeconomics

I do think we’re still in the very early stage of a massive correction, not just here but everywhere

Energy in general, oil producing companies in particular, should fare well in comparison to services and tech

And EGY having a good track record as a small/medium producer brings me to side with mgmt assertion that the SP is undervalued

I’m primarily a hardware guy and the field overhaul in Gabon was a major feat that will pay off in short order and greatly reduce chances of interruption in production for the next several years

Their capacity to deliver strong positive cash flow is proven and it appears that the geographic diversity allows them to drive a better deal in Egypt going forward

Their ESG/social programs cost will be paid by reducing the payable still owed

Without the merger, TGA was over a barrel and likely would not have been paid

EGY has a much stronger hand by their options in how/where/when to deploy capital

I think we’re at the bottom of the next crude run

and the opening chapter of the current economic downturn

I’m in turtle mode except for a couple positions that I am confident will perform well

spec