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Replies to post #66162 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
02/11/23 9:11 AM
NASDAQ Composite Index Cash opened below the previous low and closed beneath it as well warning of a bearish posture right now. It closed today at 1171812 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 1046648. Factually, this market has been rising for 3 months going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 1226955 while it is still trading above last month's high of 1169189.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction rally from the low established during October 2022. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Apr. 10, 2023. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2022 for a declining trend during that year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 1184349 and support forming below at 1158601. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 30th at 1226955, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 26th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 5.208% in a stark panic type decline.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 30th has exceeded the previous high of 1157164 made back during the week of December 12th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 1020747 made the week of December 26th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of August 2022 for two months. Since that low made in October 2022, the market has rallied for 3 months. Meanwhile, the past three months has witnessed a rally of 14% percent. A month-end closing below 1026504 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 1169189 to maintain a near-term upward rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 1318109 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during August 2022. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 1621223 back during November 2021. Of course, that was the major high in this market, which means we have a downtrend for the past 14 months. Nonetheless, we have elected three intermediate Monthly sell signals to date from the turning point of November 2021 on this monthly time level from that major high so there is still important underlying support which needs to be broken to change the trend on this time horizon. Critical support still underlies this market at 853770 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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