Replies to post #8488 on PEAK OIL - EPOCHAL EVENT OF OUR LIVES

[HowardHughs]

2022 10.6 mil EV sales (a growth of 57 % over 2021) expected
"For the full year of 2022, we expect sales of 10,6 million EVs, a growth of 57 % over 2021, with BEVs reaching 8 million units and PHEVs 2,6 million units. By the end of 2022 we expect nearly 27 million EVs in operation, counting light vehicles, 70 % are BEVs and 30 % PHEVs. Sales of Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEV) in the light vehicle sector have declined by -9 % so far and are below 20 000 units annually. Current sales are from 5 vehicle models and most sales are in South Korea and USA. We estimate their current population to ca 55 000 units."
"Global EV sales continue strong. A total of 4,3 million new BEVs and PHEVs were delivered during the first half of 2022, an increase of +62 % compared to 2021 H1."
https://www.ev-volumes.com/
Global EV Sales for 2022 H1
By Roland Irle, EV-Volumes

[HowardHughs]

Has gasoline demand peaked?Yes it has!

Internal combustion engines are sipping less gas as EV demand is on the rise.
Peak crude oil demand will follow peak gasoline demand this decade or next as ground transportation demand dries up. Crude oil is likely already in a bear market. Lower highs and lower lows with a test below $50 followed by a $50 -70 trading range seems probable.IMO
$100 oil may never be seen again.Price supports may be needed to provide continued investment and stable production as the EV transformation matures.
Perhaps peak food production or peak jobs caused by AI will bring the End Times but Peak Oil doesn't look like the straw that breaks the camel's back.HH

" Demand for the fuel(gasoline), which uses more than a quarter of the world’s crude, has already peaked. Part of that is about electric cars — BloombergNEF estimates that they’re already subtracting about 1.7 million daily barrels from global consumption. Still, much of it is just that plain old internal combustion engines are sipping less gas. New US cars now travel nearly twice as far per gallon as they did at the start of the Obama administration, with light trucks and SUVs increasing efficiency by a more modest 59%."

"After more than a century of almost continual growth, the world’s appetite for oil is peaking, and will soon enter terminal decline."

Analysis by David Fickling | Bloomberg
September 29, 2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/peak-oil-has-finally-arrivedno-really/2022/09/28/f67f2f0a-3f68-11ed-8c6e-9386bd7cd826_story.html
As older, less efficient cars are phased out of the fleet, the entropy of the scrapyard is reducing gasoline demand as rapidly as the innovation of the electric vehicle manufacturer. It’s no accident that major refiners such as Reliance Industries Ltd. are already looking beyond road transport, and reconfiguring their plants to produce aviation fuel and petrochemicals instead.

That’s not enough for those who paint a rosy future for oil demand to point to historic correlations with economic growth and argue that the pattern will repeat once again. Away from forecasters’ spreadsheets, OPEC spare capacity is already wafer-thin, and upstream investment is running at not much more than half its level last time crude prices were in the vicinity of $100 a barrel. The oil industry responsible for supplying additional barrels isn’t spending the money to ensure they’ll turn up — and if that doesn’t happen, consumption has no prospect of growing.