PEAK OIL - EPOCHAL EVENT OF OUR LIVES

[HowardHughs]

EV demand poised to turn crude oil demand downward this decade.
(Crude oil bear market may already be here IMO)
"Road transport represents the largest share of demand for crude oil, at 44% (Figure 5) with the pace of transport electrification the most significant factor in determining future demand for oil. Figures 6 to 9 show that the electrification trend in the transport sector is gathering pace with electric vehicle (EV) sales, deployment of charging infrastructure, and battery range (as a proxy for technological development) all showing accelerating trends. In the case of passenger cars, it is easy to envision that in the next decade there will be a sharply reduced market for internal combustion engine vehicles.
The steep rate of change is being driven by evolving government policy. Governments covering 25% of the global market have announced 100% EV sales mandates for 2035, and EV-related subsidies doubled in 2021 to nearly USD 30 billion (IEA, 2022). These kinds of policies are low-hanging policy fruit for the many governments looking for ways to address climate change. They can be combined with popular industrial subsidies aimed at fostering competitive firms in the green markets of the future and employment-creating spending on charging infrastructure.
"As a result, consumer uptake is poised to hit significant tipping points well before 2035, triggered by several factors, including the increasing affordability of electric vehicles. Under most assumptions, EVs are already cheaper on a lifetime basis or even straight off the lot if financed (Clean Energy Canada, 2022; Direct Line Group, 2020; Orvis, 2022). Upfront cost parity is expected to come in the mid-2020s (Bush, 2020). Increasing range, the availability of infrastructure, and growing consumer confidence that comes from familiarity with the technology will also drive EV uptake.
"According to Bloomberg NEF, “The market is shifting from being driven primarily by policy, to one where organic consumer demand is the most important factor. As regulatory drivers begin to play less of a role, consumer adoption dynamics—the ‘S-curve’—take over” (BloombergNEF, 2022). The S-curve describes the uptake of new technology that eventually takes off not in a linear fashion but exponentially, with sudden and overwhelming effects (Foster, 1986). There are numerous examples of such a dynamic with past technologies, including cellphones, personal computers and, ironically, internal combustion engine passenger vehicles.
Another driver of S-curve adoption rates will be the reluctance of new car buyers to purchase a conventional vehicle that they see as having low resale value—a positive feedback effect that will intensify as the market share of EVs climbs (Arib & Seba, 2017). EVs may also play an outsized role in the destruction of demand for oil well beyond their market share. Fleet owners, taxis, and ride-hailing services will be early adopters of EVs, given lifetime cost considerations, and their vehicles are driven many more kilometres than the average (Arib & Seba, 2017). Owners of multiple vehicles will likely also prefer to use the EVs over conventional vehicles if they have a choice, given the significant difference in operating costs.

"To be on track with the IEA’s Net-Zero scenario, 64% of passenger car sales and 5% of truck sales would have to be electric by 2030 (IEA, 2021). The above trends suggest that this trajectory is within range.
From the perspective of road transport—the biggest factor in oil demand—the trends are tracking toward the IEA’s Net-Zero scenario. This would mean a significant displacement of oil demand beginning before 2030 and picking up pace as the share of electric vehicles grows exponentially. Compared to the business-as-usual Stated Policies scenario, the Net-Zero Scenario implies a drop in the demand for oil needed for road transport of 18.8 mbpd by 2030 and 49.9 mbpd by 2050."

By Aaron Cosbey on September 16, 2022
https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/canada-can-expect-declining-oil-demand

Global Demand for Oil Will Be in Decline by 2030
"Comparing the IEA’s scenarios against observed trends suggests global demand for oil will peak before 2030 and thereafter decline. Similar conclusions have been drawn by other independent analysts (BP, 2022; DNV, 2021; McKinsey, 2022; Rystad Energy, 2022), and, in the same vein, the CER’s only plausible scenario shows Canadian production peaking in 2032.

"Demand reduction will be driven primarily by road transportation, which accounts for 44% of oil demand. Trends in climate policies, technological improvements, and consumer behaviour suggest demand reduction in line with the IEA’s NZE. These will begin before 2030 and will accelerate thereafter."