Replies to post #535434 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[thermo]

After I sold too much ISRG early, I stopped putting too fine a point on valuations of regime changing companies. I just track if the evidence is consistent with my thesis and let the winners run. One caveat, if the company needs capital, I may recycle some.

[sukus]

I also came to the same market cap valuation Hope4. I was just excited there was a rumor of BO with $40B price tag. My feeling is that $40B figure came from the 12000 per year capacity.

I also believe this figure would not go lower in the future time because NWBO will not sit idle satisfied with what is accomplished. I am sure NWBO would try hard to double the capacity somewhere else to get closer to the patients. With doubling the capacity for example, NWBO would become a more valuable company with possibly $80 B market cap? Yes that is very possible I would think.

[FeMike]

What is your take on valuation if the company can scale to 12,000 patients per yr at Sawston after approval in the UK assuming a price per patient of about $210,000?

Two things.

First, throw that 12,000 number out if you're talking just MHRA approval. It doesn't matter if Sawston can make 12k per year because the UK doesn't have that many cases/year. You're looking at a quarter to a third of that number.

Second, we've heard multiple times from folks in the know that cost is an issue. $210,000/patient post approval isn't happening. I think their current actual price, were they approved, would be around $150,000. However, they have to get that down. I'm guessing $100,000-$120,000 is the target for now.

So at 4k patients/year and $100,000 per patient that $400M/year in the UK. Using your multiple of 15 that is an MHRA approval value of around $6B which I think is spot on for a starting point. You will of course have to adjust for high likelihood of FDA approval and Direct value, so I think you're looking at a short term price target of around $8-10B immediately after MHRA approval.