I agree—Twitter was acquired for 44 billion while its actual value based on revenue is only a fraction of that sum.
The MC at the time of acquisition is hard to predict for any company considering how quickly it can rise. For murcidencel (DCVax-L), the big picture is much more interesting and enlightening: What is the technology worth as a cell-based platform and in combo?
The JAMA independent peer review as well as years of safety/efficacy data are together the most reliable indicators of value thus far. Murcidencel is already efficacious according to clinical trial data, but further development of the technology, innovations of methods of use, and indications beyond GBM could perhaps prove valuable beyond measure. It is always difficult to foresee what might unfold next.
Additionally, we need to factor in the unmet need of rGBM. The rGBM data indicated that survival was doubled for a stage of the disease for which there is no treatment to extend life.
Furthermore, the capacity to manufacture at large scale is another crucial factor to keep in mind (Flaskworks).
Arguably, cell-based immunotherapy is the future of cancer treatment. The FDA has demonstrated that cell-based science is worth their support and are working to ensure that the United States will lead the world in technologies to better address cancer, extend life, and ultimately reach a cure.
Steinman’s discovery of the dendritic cell won the Nobel Prize some years ago, and Dr. Liau’s work built upon his discovery and led to the discovery of how the dendritic cell-based technology can extend life for the deadliest cancer known to humankind. In my view, Dr. Liau deserves a Nobel Prize for her work and has already earned a worldwide reputation as an immunotherapy pioneer.
Dr. Liau is building upon the discoveries of scientists who have preceded her in time, and she is enlightening the future of immunotherapy with her groundbreaking work.
“I will respect the hard-won scientific gains of those physicians in whose steps I walk, and gladly share such knowledge as is mine with those who are to follow.” —Hippocratic Oath
Many have attempted to asses the value of this cell-based technology.
Reasonable speculation about price tag numbers requires research and professional guidance. A review of recent history presents us with ballpark ideas, but there is a vast range within the realm of possibilities for any particular biotech…
The Celgene $74 billion deal is an interesting event in history to research and study. It’s enlightening to consider their science, safety/efficacy data, and price tag at buyout.
While I cannot make direct comparisons and I cannot make predictions, Celgene is one of many interesting history book stories to think about.
Immunomedics is another interesting recent acquisition. Gilead paid $21 billion for a technology that appeared far less impressive than murcidencel to some investors.
Every major global pharmaceutical company has recognized that cell-based immunotherapy is the future of cancer treatment, and they are looking to buy the best emerging technologies at precisely the right time.
History and precedent with regard to other clinical-stage biotechs can help shape our understanding of all the possibilities that could materialize for the murcidencel platform technology and for the company’s technology to manufacture at large scale.
These are my own thoughts and my personal opinions are not based on any expertise. It is important to do your own research and consult trusted licensed professionals.
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