no2koolaid: I also appreciated the sharing of your DCF valuation exercise. Because of the lack of information regarding how much public/private insurance will cover by country (amoung many other unknown operational factors going forward), I decided to use a more primative enterprise valuation model approach based upon different potential outcome scenarios and reimbursement rates. I then computed and expected enterprise value based upon the estimated likelihood of each scenario.
My method likely would have has just a many assumptions as yours, and I did it only for n/rGBM in developed countries. In addition, there have been 1 or 2 valuation computations floated on this board over the last couple of years that at a conceptual level make sense given the lack of information on how the future state operational company will be structured.
I think the conclusion is no matter how one attempts to seriously assign a valuation to DCVax-L, one is ultimately faced with the fact that when it becomes the SOC and is mostly reimbursable in developed countries, the enterprise value of the company will be significantly greater than this artifically low valuation of today.
The potential of the company is vast given the opportunities to use DCVax-Direct in solid cancers as well as in veterinary medicine.
Peace.
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