Replies to post #9835 on MDA - Market Direction Analysis (MDA)

[halfcab]

Augieboo,

I'm listening <G>...you "gyrating" scalp model appears to have gyrated before, though in the 0.00 - 0.30 range, as opposed to where it is now gyrating 0.00 - -0.20 range. When it did the elvis thing in the higher range, the prevailing move appears to have continued (ie., one should have stayed long)....I'm inclined to think that given the nas chart here one might stay short here, or at least not go long or "clown" long (what is that, btw <G>).

CCMP is paying me handsomely here from my short in the high 50s...will cover at 52.40. Getting killed on PHTN and AFCO shorts, however.

[dave564]

Augieboo,

How would this work for individual equities? Is it even possible to apply the data in a similar fashion? Or is there too much volatility in individual stocks to make it worthwhile?

Dave

[Namiar]

Hi Augie,

Haven't yet checked, but I may have have a first rung buy on my scalp model today. Will run the numbers a little before close to verify.

Your internals data saying that your model is currently in "buy" territory, for that matter it never seems to have left that zone. I have also noticed a general weakness in the internals ratios during this last move up. I can surmise a couple of divergent options:

1) We still have some big moves in front of us. As of late, my model would achieve key overbought thresholds before the markets would commence a selloff. Thus far I have not seen those levels of overbought, although Monday was close.

2) Markets are starting to roll over. Weaker internals in the face of large upmoves means that selling/shorting thresholds need to be lowered. This would imply that Monday overbought level was "good enough" to trigger a selloff.

I would tend to favor option #1 at this point - I think we will see another big move up before a big move down. Although my personal bottom line prefers a down move so that I can enter another high probability scalp trade.