There are communities in NSW that have faced floods for the fourth time in 18 months. And for some people, inthe back of their minds, there's a strong likelihood it'll happen again. This report from Dan Conifer and Hannah Bowers.
Michael McGowan and Tamsin Rose Sat 25 Mar 2023 23.07 AEDT Last modified on Sun 26 Mar 2023 00.36 AEDT
Labor is on track to form majority government in New South Wales after 12 years in opposition, with the party leader, 43-year-old former firefighter and political staffer Chris Minns, declaring the party is “back and ready to govern in this great state”.
As counting ended on Saturday night, Labor had picked up at least nine seats, enough to govern in majority and a better-than-expected result for the party after big swings in many previously safe Coalition seats.
The result means Minns will become the first Labor leader to win government from opposition in NSW for almost three decades and sees the Coalition relegated to the opposition benches in every parliament on mainland Australia.
In a late-night speech delivered to a packed room of party faithful in a function room in the beachside suburb of Brighton-Le-Sands, in Minns’ seat of Kogarah in Sydney’s south, he said the election was “a decisive vote against privatisation”.
“We know the challenges are huge, the responsibilities are awesome but NSW Labor is back and ready to govern in this great state of NSW,” he said.
“We started effectively two years ago with a promise to the people of NSW that we would run an election campaign asking people to vote a positive vote for NSW Labor and not just a negative vote against the government.
“I’m proud to say today the people of NSW voted for the removal of the unfair wages cap. They voted for our nurses, our teachers … our paramedics and police.”
For the Coalition, the result marks a devastating blow. Dominic Perrottet .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/dominic-perrottet .. had sought to reset the government after becoming premier in late 2021 after former premier Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation, and won plaudits for his push to reform poker machines in the state.
But the baggage of 12 years in government proved too much to overcome. Speaking on Saturday night, former Liberal prime minister John Howard paid tribute to Perrottet for running an “heroic” campaign.
“He put forward ideas. He was bold,” Howard said, saying the outgoing premier’s stance on problem gambling – something he called a “social evil” – was “admirable”.
In his concession speech, Perrottet announced he would stand down as the state’s Liberal party .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/liberal-party .. leader while hailing the three-term Coalition government’s record.
“It is a time to reflect. It is a time to rethink and ultimately to renew. To renew as leader of the parliamentary Liberal party, I take full responsibility for the loss this evening,” he said.
“But we as a party, we as a government should be very proud of what we have achieved together.
“Make no mistake, we’ve made history of being in government for the longest time since our party was formed. And our government has achieved so much in so many ways. We’ve kept NSW strong, free and fair.”
In their speeches, both leaders paid tribute to one another for a campaign which had largely avoided going negative.
Perrottet said he believed Minns would make a “fine 47th premier … because I believe that he will lead with the same decency and the same integrity that he has led with so far,” he said.
VIDEO - 'Reflect and renew': Dominic Perrottet stands down as NSW Liberal leader
Labor had been keen to play the expectation management game earlier on Saturday, pointing out that despite polls favouring the party it had a narrow path to victory. It needed nine seats to form a majority, with only four on margins of less than 5%.
It had not held Goulburn – held on 3.1% – since 1965, and by the end of counting on Saturday night it remained too close to call.
But it didn’t matter. Labor gains in regional seats of South Coast and Monaro – both seats previously held by the Coalition on safe margins – as well as in Sydney’s west in Parramatta, Riverstone, Penrith, East Hills, Ryde and Camden – meant it was in a position to form government.
Labor also remained in the hunt for the seat of Balmain, held by the Greens since 2011.
The Liberal party also lost Wakehurst and Berejiklian’s former seat of Willoughby to independents Michael Regan and Larissa Penn.
It is only the third time Labor has won government from opposition in NSW – most recently in 1995, when Bob Carr won with a one-seat margin.
Labor’s path to victory relied on a narrow message focused on the Coalition’s record on privatisation, scrapping its controversial public sector wages cap and promises to lift spending on health and education infrastructure.
But the party was criticised for refusing to back Perrottet’s push on gambling reform, instead offering only a trial of the mandatory cashless gaming systems on 500 poker machines across the state.
Their victory will mark a blow for anti-gambling advocates, who had hailed Perrottet’s push on the issue as a generational reform in the pokies capital of Australia.
Att: blackhawks. Cycler photo.El Nino watch underway as La Nina comes to end following three wet years
"NSW Flood Emergency | 10 News First "Att. blackhawks - Thanks to heavy rain, Australia’s environment scores a 7 out of 10 – but the future remains bleak"
Related: What is causing record floods and heat waves in China? [...]More than half a million people were evacuated this month because of the flood threat. [...]China’s central economic planner estimates that extreme weather will shave off one to 3% of the country’s GDP every year. [...]It followed a warning in March from Xiao Chan, deputy director of the National Climate Center: “Global warming and La Nina events are contributing to abnormally high temperatures and extreme rain in China.” P - As the Earth’s atmosphere gets warmer, it holds more moisture, making downpours more intense. P - La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing devastating floods in South China, India and Bangladesh. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169432828
Incredible photographs show California has ‘gone green’ after sustained heavy rainfall [...]Australia could swing from three years of La Niña to hot and dry El Niño in 2023 P - Bureau of Meteorology climate models indicate sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific may exceed El Niño thresholds by June [...]The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which uses different thresholds than the BoM to determine La Niña and El Niño events, last month .. https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/enso_current_conditions.php .. rated odds of an El Niño forming by August-October as a two-in-three chance. https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171003369
By Alex Crowe Updated March 15 2023 - 11:04am, first published 5:30am
VIDEO
Australia could be headed for a hot and dry rest of the year with the Bureau of Meteorology declaring a 50 per cent chance of El Nino in 2023.
La Nina has officially been declared over after months of easing and an El Nino watch is now underway.
More rain is typical during La Nina while El Nino often means a hotter, drier climate, as was experienced throughout summer in Europe.
Andrew Watkins, Bureau of Meteorology spokesman, said after three years of record-breaking rainfall in eastern Australia, long-range forecasting showed drier than average conditions for most of the country this autumn.
Dr Watkins said El Nino didn't necessarily mean drought conditions for Australia in 2023.
"There have been 27 El Nino years since 1900, and around 18 of those years were affected by widespread winter-spring drought," he said.
Dr Watkins said while long-range forecasts showed an increased chance of below average rainfall for most of Australia during autumn, the northern wet season continued.
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino in 2023. Picture by Dion Georgopoulos
He said the wet season, which included the tropical cyclone season for northern Australia, was likely continuing into April.
"There remains the chance of tropical weather systems bringing heavy rain at times to the north," Dr Watkins said.
If these tropical weather systems extend south, there remains the possibility of periods of heavy rainfall, and flooding, particularly in parts of eastern Australia where soils remain wet and rivers and dams are still full, the bureau says.
Temperatures are set to soar in the ACT this week, with forecasts for 30 degrees or above from Thursday.
Sunday will top out at 35 degrees, after a low of just 14 degrees.
Kimberley Reid, atmospheric scientist at Monash University, said the Earth's climate was like a pendulum.
"It's not that unusual to swing into an El Nino after a La Nina," Dr Reid said.
"Now is the time to start cutting back the excess vegetation that grew over the last three years.
"All it takes is a dry winter and spring, which is probable with an El Nino, and all that excess vegetation will be fuel for summer bushfires."
La Nina is the cool phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, while El Nino is the warm phase.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation describes a naturally occurring cycle in the climate system, including the location of warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and its connection with the trade winds and patterns in the atmosphere.
Its effects impact weather around large parts of the globe, including Australia.
If the chance of El Nino forming in 2023 increases to 70 per cent, the bureau will change from watch to alert status.
Alex covers science and environment issues, with a focus on local Canberra stories. alex.crowe@austcommunitymedia.com.au
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