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Sunday, April 02, 2023 4:39:58 PM
Att: blackhawks. Cycler photo. El Nino watch underway as La Nina comes to end following three wet years
"NSW Flood Emergency | 10 News First
"Att. blackhawks - Thanks to heavy rain, Australia’s environment scores a 7 out of 10 – but the future remains bleak"
Related: What is causing record floods and heat waves in China?
[...]More than half a million people were evacuated this month because of the flood threat.
[...]China’s central economic planner estimates that extreme weather will shave off one to 3% of the country’s GDP every year.
[...]It followed a warning in March from Xiao Chan, deputy director of the National Climate Center: “Global warming and La Nina events are contributing to abnormally high temperatures and extreme rain in China.”
P - As the Earth’s atmosphere gets warmer, it holds more moisture, making downpours more intense.
P - La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing devastating floods in South China, India and Bangladesh.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169432828
Incredible photographs show California has ‘gone green’ after sustained heavy rainfall
[...]Australia could swing from three years of La Niña to hot and dry El Niño in 2023
P - Bureau of Meteorology climate models indicate sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific may exceed El Niño thresholds by June
[...]The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which uses different thresholds than the BoM to determine La Niña and El Niño events, last month .. https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/enso_current_conditions.php .. rated odds of an El Niño forming by August-October as a two-in-three chance.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171003369
By Alex Crowe
Updated March 15 2023 - 11:04am, first published 5:30am
VIDEO
Australia could be headed for a hot and dry rest of the year with the Bureau of Meteorology declaring a 50 per cent chance of El Nino in 2023.
La Nina has officially been declared over after months of easing and an El Nino watch is now underway.
More rain is typical during La Nina while El Nino often means a hotter, drier climate, as was experienced throughout summer in Europe.
Andrew Watkins, Bureau of Meteorology spokesman, said after three years of record-breaking rainfall in eastern Australia, long-range forecasting showed drier than average conditions for most of the country this autumn.
Dr Watkins said El Nino didn't necessarily mean drought conditions for Australia in 2023.
"There have been 27 El Nino years since 1900, and around 18 of those years were affected by widespread winter-spring drought," he said.
Dr Watkins said while long-range forecasts showed an increased chance of below average rainfall for most of Australia during autumn, the northern wet season continued.
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino in 2023. Picture by Dion Georgopoulos
He said the wet season, which included the tropical cyclone season for northern Australia, was likely continuing into April.
"There remains the chance of tropical weather systems bringing heavy rain at times to the north," Dr Watkins said.
If these tropical weather systems extend south, there remains the possibility of periods of heavy rainfall, and flooding, particularly in parts of eastern Australia where soils remain wet and rivers and dams are still full, the bureau says.
Temperatures are set to soar in the ACT this week, with forecasts for 30 degrees or above from Thursday.
Sunday will top out at 35 degrees, after a low of just 14 degrees.
Kimberley Reid, atmospheric scientist at Monash University, said the Earth's climate was like a pendulum.
"It's not that unusual to swing into an El Nino after a La Nina," Dr Reid said.
"Now is the time to start cutting back the excess vegetation that grew over the last three years.
"All it takes is a dry winter and spring, which is probable with an El Nino, and all that excess vegetation will be fuel for summer bushfires."
La Nina is the cool phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, while El Nino is the warm phase.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation describes a naturally occurring cycle in the climate system, including the location of warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and its connection with the trade winds and patterns in the atmosphere.
Its effects impact weather around large parts of the globe, including Australia.
If the chance of El Nino forming in 2023 increases to 70 per cent, the bureau will change from watch to alert status.
Alex covers science and environment issues, with a focus on local Canberra stories. alex.crowe@austcommunitymedia.com.au
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8121275/el-nino-watch-underway-as-the-bureau-declares-la-nina-is-done/
"NSW Flood Emergency | 10 News First
"Att. blackhawks - Thanks to heavy rain, Australia’s environment scores a 7 out of 10 – but the future remains bleak"
Related: What is causing record floods and heat waves in China?
[...]More than half a million people were evacuated this month because of the flood threat.
[...]China’s central economic planner estimates that extreme weather will shave off one to 3% of the country’s GDP every year.
[...]It followed a warning in March from Xiao Chan, deputy director of the National Climate Center: “Global warming and La Nina events are contributing to abnormally high temperatures and extreme rain in China.”
P - As the Earth’s atmosphere gets warmer, it holds more moisture, making downpours more intense.
P - La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing devastating floods in South China, India and Bangladesh.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169432828
Incredible photographs show California has ‘gone green’ after sustained heavy rainfall
[...]Australia could swing from three years of La Niña to hot and dry El Niño in 2023
P - Bureau of Meteorology climate models indicate sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific may exceed El Niño thresholds by June
[...]The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which uses different thresholds than the BoM to determine La Niña and El Niño events, last month .. https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/enso_current_conditions.php .. rated odds of an El Niño forming by August-October as a two-in-three chance.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171003369
By Alex Crowe
Updated March 15 2023 - 11:04am, first published 5:30am
VIDEO
Australia could be headed for a hot and dry rest of the year with the Bureau of Meteorology declaring a 50 per cent chance of El Nino in 2023.
La Nina has officially been declared over after months of easing and an El Nino watch is now underway.
More rain is typical during La Nina while El Nino often means a hotter, drier climate, as was experienced throughout summer in Europe.
Andrew Watkins, Bureau of Meteorology spokesman, said after three years of record-breaking rainfall in eastern Australia, long-range forecasting showed drier than average conditions for most of the country this autumn.
Dr Watkins said El Nino didn't necessarily mean drought conditions for Australia in 2023.
"There have been 27 El Nino years since 1900, and around 18 of those years were affected by widespread winter-spring drought," he said.
Dr Watkins said while long-range forecasts showed an increased chance of below average rainfall for most of Australia during autumn, the northern wet season continued.
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino in 2023. Picture by Dion Georgopoulos
He said the wet season, which included the tropical cyclone season for northern Australia, was likely continuing into April.
"There remains the chance of tropical weather systems bringing heavy rain at times to the north," Dr Watkins said.
If these tropical weather systems extend south, there remains the possibility of periods of heavy rainfall, and flooding, particularly in parts of eastern Australia where soils remain wet and rivers and dams are still full, the bureau says.
Temperatures are set to soar in the ACT this week, with forecasts for 30 degrees or above from Thursday.
Sunday will top out at 35 degrees, after a low of just 14 degrees.
Kimberley Reid, atmospheric scientist at Monash University, said the Earth's climate was like a pendulum.
"It's not that unusual to swing into an El Nino after a La Nina," Dr Reid said.
"Now is the time to start cutting back the excess vegetation that grew over the last three years.
"All it takes is a dry winter and spring, which is probable with an El Nino, and all that excess vegetation will be fuel for summer bushfires."
La Nina is the cool phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, while El Nino is the warm phase.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation describes a naturally occurring cycle in the climate system, including the location of warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and its connection with the trade winds and patterns in the atmosphere.
Its effects impact weather around large parts of the globe, including Australia.
If the chance of El Nino forming in 2023 increases to 70 per cent, the bureau will change from watch to alert status.
Alex covers science and environment issues, with a focus on local Canberra stories. alex.crowe@austcommunitymedia.com.au
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8121275/el-nino-watch-underway-as-the-bureau-declares-la-nina-is-done/
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