Replies to post #490336 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[monentum2play]

Thank you for your reasonable reply and evaluation.

[Fireman02360]

I wrote that it will be one of the most expensive approved products to produced (not the most expensive) that Car-T is much more complex, can be more expensive is not an argument against what I writes ..

Kymriah and Yescarta (Car-T Lymphoma Treatments) both cost about $700,000 for 85% of patients, and the other 15% paid over $1 million for treatment. Both drugs were approved and 2017 and 2018, respectively by the FDA. DCVax will most likely cost $175-225k so you point about DC Vax being one of the most expensive cancer treatments isn't correct. If in fact these DC Vax estimates hold up, it will be one of the cheapest cancer treatments with pretty much zero complications and a very favorable life expectancy increase. As might know, even the SOC for most cancers, chemo, has a higher cost than the actual cost of chemotherapy because of the all complications..ie more drugs and treatment to offset the side effects of chemo. Also,one would have to imagine Flaskworks will bring the cost down even more, once approved.

My mother took Humira for Crohns....cost in 2008 was over $10k for 30 day supply or $120k a year. Perspective.

While I 100% agree there are uncertainties surrounding NWBO, cost isn't one of them.

-Fireman

[biosectinvestor]

ahp123
Sunday, June 26, 2022 7:33:05 PM
Re: biosectinvestor post# 490325
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Post# of 490356 Go
Let me explain:

I did not write that it was "incredibly expensive" product I wrote that it will be one of the most expensive approved products to produced (not the most expensive) that Car-T is much more complex, can be more expensive is not an argument against what I writes .. Yes it is, and I don't agree with you that this is anywhere near the same complexity.

"I think they have way more difficulties for now meeting potential demand. There are multiple approved similar products for the same narrow sliver of the oncology market with many more in the running, potentially with much better production technologies and yet they were still bought out for 10Billion. "
—-this can be exactly one of the reasons for a caution towards new technologies .. They did, and I could have told them that at the time, but the problem is, prices are going up for even more pedestrian oncology companies that don't have as cutting edge technology and again, in my opinion, though there seem to be similarities, this product is not as complex and the challenges are more practical than Car-T, for basic production. Flaskworks, while I think is incredible, will also have practical issues, but I don't think it is the same level of complexity. They are not reprogramming cells, they are maintaining purity, timing, and moving product from one place to the other. Still complex, still individualized, but not the same level of complexity, and their breakthroughs making more than one dose at a time, freezing, storage, and cost management is already quite impressive. And not to make light of what Flaskworks has accomplished, but the point is, it was already a product and one presumes they had already solved a lot of the basic issues of moving product through a process / cartridge already, and adding necessary inputs and removing what they need to remove. Of course there is speculation that Flaskworks actually had a real product and NWBO did some basic due diligence, but I've been involved in that process as well, and LP and LG worked at Goldman, I doubt they shortchanged that process. But there is some speculation that they exercised ordinary care. I agree on one thing, there might be some who are not all that informed who THINK this is Dendreon again, but they are misinformed.

“I think you're overstating the costs, dependencies and issues AHP, and the potential confusion for a much better market cap.” —-pure speculation and nothing suggests you are right, on the contrary .. You may think so, and it's a quick way to dismiss a criticism, but I think not. Think whatever you want.

"I was in those Car-T companies, they were in the 4-6 Billion market cap even when one of them was halted for killing patients, still nowhere near approval, yet to figure out how to deal with it."
—Have you considered that these companies might have been overpriced and BP has learned from that. I think they were, but to be first in that field, not so much. The same will apply here, there is not another major opportunity in DC cells this is more singular than those companies, they will likely be a monopoly for this technology in GBM and then likely other solid tumors as well, for some time, and they have a head start on automation. I actually don't think it's exactly the same thing, and savvy observers in the industry will know that, less savvy observers will hope to get a bargain and miss their shot.

“I think their business is far less attractive than this one, where 2-3 years of vaccine is made all at once, there are limited side effects”
—-totally agree but it's just our subjective views. I don't agree, I think that can be and is a concrete advantage.

“he pricing per year is quite reasonable for a life extending, good quality of life cancer treatment -“
—pure speculation as we do not know the price agreements yet ... The pricing will likely be determined by whomever buys them and the discussion with regulators, but I believe they have a good shot at making this quite affordable AND STILL making a lot of money. Contrary to those other companies, they own all the baseline IP, the inputs come directly from the customer. The process is, despite it taking a lot to get it to this stage, and such development will likely continue, again, a lot of moving cells around and maintaining proper conditions, but not reinventing the T-Cell, for instance, or reprogramming it. It's just not the same thing, not to suggest it has fewer practical challenges, but they are more straightforward. All IMHO, but I have invested in a lot of cell therapies, and I think you overstate the issues, but you know, lawyers do that to get business, everyone does it to make money. I do not think this is "all speculative", but it is my opinion. Everything about investing can be said to be "all speculative", if you want to go that route. Yo u're investing in this versus another company is "all speculative". It's kind of an empty phrase at this level into it.

“and they have what looks like scalable, automated manufacturing -“
—that's probably one of the most interesting things NWBO has. the problem is just that we do not know the agreements with Advent yet. but admit it looks positive. Honestly, if they did not have it, I'd still believe they were worth quite a bit more than they are now, though you don't see me putting down giant amounts, but the purchase of Flaskworks popped them over $2.51 before they wer even data locked, and the patents are for processing these cells and efficiency, not for the actual cell type, so that's huge for them to have that and own it outright. I think they need to hold onto it quite tightly, like Coke holds onto its secret recipe.

“likely coming online in the bit too distant future, regardless of what our bulletin board experts might claim.”
—/hopes and dreams .. pure speculation. but hope you are right. I have confidence in their due diligence and previous approvals, and my own experience recruiting manufacturing engineers over the years. No, it's not any more purely speculative than choosing to invest here rather than some other company. You do your thing, I'll do mine. Of course this is all in your opinion and mine, but to suggest that anything else is other than that is again, not all that additive.

“Even so, with the hand made option, they can still make quite a bit, and the cost is set already by contract”
—yes but we still do not know what the price is and it creates uncertainty We know what they charge currently, for extremely hand made process, and I doubt they are doing that as a loss leader. It is the human input, the input from the patient, the cost of shipping both ways to a high level of care, and storage. But I expect that they have a good idea of those costs, and I'm willing to go with revenue as a number for now, based on those numbers. I don't think Advent is going to be sharing profit, as the contract manufacturer, which you had suggested. The factory belongs to NWBO and they are there at the option of NWBO.

“and is likely to decline, over time, on a per year basis, on scale up.” --- pure speculation

You think everything is pure speculation, I've actually worked in manufacturing, and if it's inflation that is one thing, but economies of scale tend to be a fundamental process once you scale up, particularly if you can automate parts or all of the process if they can't do it in the way they initially envisioned, end to end.. In my opinion, they can likely even automate even when it's not end to end to address cost savings, even when it's not perfectly as originally envisioned. I also think it's more likely this will all be owned by someone else in due time.That part is speculation, but I think it's likely.

“I do not think it is unreasonable to expect a much higher market cap. The issues are macroeconomic. This burst to $ 2.51 long before TLD was likely in the picture, based on the buyout of the Flaskworks technology at a very reasonable price.”
--- I do not know what you mean by "much higher" but if these are the prices you mention earlier 6B-10B then I think you will be badly disappointed before we see profit. So why are you hanging around here? I do think macro economic factors are more important right now than anything else.

“I think the market is doing its thing right now, many stocks are down, but too much "ambiguity" of ambiguous nature should not be thrown onto the normal ambiguities “
—-yes it can be difficult for people to understand that they can also experience a bear market, but we are some more experienced investors who have experienced this before, I've experienced it all before and spent a career involved in macro related factors. I just happen to like biotech personally, for personal reasons.

“The factory does belong to NWBO”
—-i know, but Advent must also make money producing DCVax
They will, as a contract manufacturer. Splitting the profit is not a likely outcome, IMHO.

“the license to manufacture is fine where it is,”
--- it is a bold statement (some might even call it stupid) when you do not know the full agreement.

It is modeled on the past agreement, which I have reviewed. You and I are not going to get the exact "costing", but I doubt they will price it in such a way that they lose on every dose. It's not stupid to expect normal commercial behavior. Assuming they might not behave in a commercial way, presumes bad behavior that I do not think is consistent with reality. Shorts do say that, it's not my view.

“.but can be easily transferred to a buyer on purchase, as part of the existing contracts in this kind of an arrangement.”
-- yes probably but for what cost it will not be for free ...

The terms of the contract are termination with one year notice. Period. That will likely stay as is, as that is a commercial term. I think presuming they have to buy out Advent, suggests an unlikely term for a contract manufacturer in this industry. And no, I don't think they will have special terms that are far off market, and I do not think they have had that so far either. In fact, my review of the past contract with Cognate tells me the contract benefitted NWBO far more, but shorts will of course argue the opposite.

I am not ignoring anything you are..

No, I'm not "ignoring" anything. I have different opinions, based on life's experiences and knowledge from a range of other similar investments and deals I've done over many years. One can presume they will do things badly, and I recognize that as a risk factor. But I don't spend my time posting that we don't know, they could do everything badly, so we have to wait to figure out a reasonable ultimate range of valuation. That's not how one invests, yo still have to make your own determinations, understanding the risks, but within practical bounds. Suggesting everything is absolutely unknown so you can't make a determination sounds an awful lot like telling people they should invest somewhere else. Maybe they should, but my point was really not to say what people should think, but simply to point out that people can make reasonable conclusions, and that the approach you were suggesting would lead to an inability to make any decisions, good or bad, about one's investments. People have to make practical determinations, and of course all of this investment is SPECULATIVE, using that word over and over again, doesn't add to the analysis or making decisions, it just falsely creates an assumption that someone has thought it all out and ended up unable to make any decisions, one way or the other. The risk here is definitely not for everyone and risk of losing 100% of one's investment is ALWAYS a possibility in these investments. No one wants to understate that, least of all me.

All above, of course, is IMHO.