Replies to post #97910 on Savvy Trades and Investments

[mankind]

I have no Idea. What I do see is that the Apples and Teslas of the world have been underperforming the general market for over a year now. Meanwhile, there are numerous (mostly energy) names, that have been under accumulation during the same timeframe. Many are below book value and have negative earnings. Most importantly (for me) is that they are now the market leaders. No matter what fundamental decision we arrive at, means little as we don't sit in the boardroom. If you simply pull up a long term chart, you'll see what's cheap. Often the fundamental reason will appear a few qtrs after you have taken a position.

[mankind]

I wanted to answer your question based on history, after all that's all we have.

This strategy rarely trades, no shorting, It's basically "Red light or Green light" for the market it's trading. The results below are from the same variables. As of today it remains long both the SPY and VTI (the broadest stock market index). It exited QQQ at a near term bottom on FRIDAY THE 13TH!

My conclusion: QQQ (75% technology based) has been underperforming the SPY since July 2020.

SPY ==27 years.
Results:
Annual return = 8.8%
Max drawdown = -32%

Buy and Hold Results:
Annual return = 6.9%
Max drawdown = -55.9%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

QQQ == 22 years
Results:
Annual return = 9.4%
Max drawdown = -30.7%

Buy and Hold Results:
Annual return = 8.1%
Max drawdown = -82.7% (Large due to starting in 2000 market high)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

VTI (Broadest measure) == 19 years
Results:
Annual return = 7.9%
Max drawdown = -32.9%

Buy and Hold Results:
Annual return = 6.3%
Max drawdown = -56.0%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>