I wanted to answer your question based on history, after all that's all we have.
This strategy rarely trades, no shorting, It's basically "Red light or Green light" for the market it's trading. The results below are from the same variables. As of today it remains long both the SPY and VTI (the broadest stock market index). It exited QQQ at a near term bottom on FRIDAY THE 13TH!
My conclusion: QQQ (75% technology based) has been underperforming the SPY since July 2020.
SPY ==27 years. Results: Annual return = 8.8% Max drawdown = -32%
Buy and Hold Results: Annual return = 6.9% Max drawdown = -55.9% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
QQQ == 22 years Results: Annual return = 9.4% Max drawdown = -30.7%
Buy and Hold Results: Annual return = 8.1% Max drawdown = -82.7% (Large due to starting in 2000 market high) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
VTI (Broadest measure) == 19 years Results: Annual return = 7.9% Max drawdown = -32.9%
Buy and Hold Results: Annual return = 6.3% Max drawdown = -56.0% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>