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Money4Nothing-M4N

05/05/22 2:54 PM

#239459 RE: igotthemojo #239458

There’s no point in trying so hard to explain it. We know they started with “several hundred” kilos because we already know they delivered enough for “several thousand yards”.

As I posted last night, according to Rice, several hundred kilos makes several thousand yards of silk.

It was PRd that they were going to ship enough for “several thousand yards” and the shipment was made.

Although some say that was a lie.
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ImjinBridger

05/05/22 5:36 PM

#239464 RE: igotthemojo #239458

they want their testing to be at tonnage...and they arent going to make 2 kilos for 5 generations and then suddenly jump to tonnage...makes no sense...



It would only make sense if they used the first five generations to get the testing procedures down pat. It would make sense that they would dramatically increase the testing throughput after getting all the kinks out in the first five. Which they just announced they did. I don't claim to know. I do know that if nothing dramatic happens for another year I won't be surprised. Betting against Kim selling silk has been a sure winner for a long time.
Would you agree that if you're right and they have tons of silk to ship in the next few weeks that they should have to reveal it no later than Q3?
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DimesForShares

05/06/22 6:37 AM

#239476 RE: igotthemojo #239458

Doubling from one generation to the next may have been beyond the capabilities of Prodigy in Gens 1 to 4. They apparently did not have much ability to screen genetics prior to Gen 5 and had to be trained on the equipment to test Gen 5.

So it might have been 10 kilos, 11 kilos, 12 kilos, and 14 kilos.

It won’t take long to verify a critical assumption of my analysis that you didn’t much care for. Female silkworms lay about 300 eggs. Since a male has to be involved in the process, we can think of a breeding pair producing 300 eggs or 150 eggs per silkworm. If one allows all silkworms to hatch and mate, that implies a 150-fold increase in egg numbers across generations.

The fact that Gen 6 is only 10 times larger than Gen 5, not 150 times larger, has several explanations. Prodigy might have harvested the other 140 times silkworms, for example. But the steady state percentage of 1% derives directly from that number of eggs per silkworm. The actual percentage is smaller, but I assumed that not all eggs would survive to cocoon.

My analysis isn’t particularly sensitive to the number of eggs. The story would be a little different if KBLB’s silkworms only produced 200 eggs or even 100. But it would be different if silkworms only laid 20 eggs, produced cocoons that had 10 times the silk of other silkworms, or had a mortality rate of greater than 50%. The first two alternatives are quite unlikely.