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Whalatane

04/26/22 12:51 PM

#375579 RE: FlyFishingStocks #375575

So are you predicting a crash ?

Margin requirements in 1929 was only 10 % . So if your position dropped 10% you were immediately underwater .Once those on margin were underwater they dumped their positions … which triggered additional margin calls … and the cascade continued .
The closest we have come to that in recent history was the sub prime mortgage bust around 2008-9.
Those who bt homes on adjustable subprime mortgages couldn’t refinance them when they needed to and lenders foreclosed .

This is not 1929 repeating

It’s a market responding to higher interest rates due to the Fed trying to reduce inflation .
Higher interest rates make long duration assets ( tech / biotech ) less attractive .

At some pt this gets priced in

What I will be looking for is the amount of cash on hand AMRN reports on May 5th .
If it’s still over $400m , there’s no risk of them needing new financing in any form ( capital raise / dilution etc ) in the near future

Kiwi