Replies to post #95632 on Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[jeunke22]

Fantastic Industry summary Richard. Thank you. Couple this with yesterday’s Lebby’s Roth Investor presentation and you see that Lightwave is the “spider in the middle of this web.” Literally.

[walterc]

very well documented dd ,

If it is not LWLG it is the best kept secret ever.
2022 is our year...

[tradero]

Another fantastic post Richard!!! Great summary and info. And I agree with you when you say that the interview with Andrew Yu & ML is more telling than expected

[maheu86]

Hang this in the Louvre!

[prototype_101]

BINGO!! Richard said, My personal conclusion is that we are doing business with nearly all of the aforementioned companies starting in 2022 for direct drive devices to save the data centers hundreds of millions of dollars on their power bill while tripling the speed of the internet.

Richard, I agree 100%, Dr Lebby has been working Deals under NDA's throughout the entire Industry food chain (Deal Time!!) for the past several years and it is ALL about to come into the light of day very soon!!

"UBIQUITOUS" !!!

ubiquitous
yoo?-bik'wi-t?s
adjective
Being or seeming to be everywhere at the same time; omnipresent.
Existing or being everywhere, or in all places, at the same time; omnipresent.
Being everywhere at once: omnipresent.

[Pickle Power]

Marvelous, Richard!

[ctkrod]

Pin this at the top of the board! Excellent post, thank you.

[Scope08]

And Richard_LaRiv...thank you for taking the time to put this together. We all appreciate your effort.

[microchips]

Incredible work Richard. Sherlock Holmes could NOT have done any better.

[dude abides]

To me the HG Genuine clip discussing polymer modulators stuck out as an important moment. The guy lays it all out, mention's "Logic levels (likely meant Lightwave Logic's power levels)," and how important our tech is to co-packaged optics.

That seems like yesterday but it was Nov 2020 - crazy!

We're right where we need to be - won't be long.

Thanks for putting this all together Richard

[beurstips]

Richard,

this is some great DD..Ty for sharing this..well documented..

[frobinso]

Hi Richard,

From comments on 3...

"There was a JP Morgan investor conference today where Broadcom pretty much said there was a 30% reduction in power in co-packaging as well.
Please keep the discussion professional. I cannot speak for others. Please follow up with them personally."

I was a Universal Display investor when they announced they had enlisted JP Morgan to be strategically involved in helping them with financing to facilitate mass commercialization of OLED technology.

In the weeks following that, the shareprice rose multiple dollars at a time for weeks on no news. The financings were done at such a high shareprice that even the financing news was perceived very positively by the market, and dilution was minimal. The rest is history with their meteoric rise.

It is obvious from the comments above that JPM understands this space. It would be a natural fit for Dr. Lebby to similary approach JPM. Further, OLED/PANL has continued their participation year after year on these tech conferences as well.

This is something that Dr. Lebby could do TODAY, to add great value to the company.

[WayHaw]

Fantastic research Mr. LaRiv.
Appreciate-cha.

[frobinso]

It was an excellent journey to review - Thank You Richard!

[Outcast27]

Very good post. Thank you for the good work. Adding..seems like a good idea. $LWLG

[F2]

Just a great post Richard. Had to read again. Thanks so much…

F2

[tkg]

Very grateful to you Richard for sharing your work!!

[frobinso]

Richard, Thank you so much for this, along with the many others that deserve to be named and thanked.

[prototype_101]

I said there are too many dots to connect for a message board post, but I'll give it my best attempt.

1) March 7, 2022 - GlobalFoundries announced it is collaborating with industry leaders including Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Marvell and NVIDIA.

2) Rewind to January 2021 and Cisco announces a collaboration with Inphi
"today I am pleased to announce a collaboration between Cisco and Inphi to cooperate on the definition of a CPO-based switch/optics solution to drive the industry forward and ensuring interoperability between silicon and optical engines from multiple different companies."
In that same announcement, they stated CPO can be expected in 2022.

3) The CTO of Inphi was asked what would drive the power savings of their CPO switch. He answered, "The use of a much lower power XSR Serdes or directly driving the optical tile from the switch is what going to reduce the overall system power."

4) Four months later Inphi was acquired by Marvell.
So now we have dots connecting both Cisco and Marvell to developing direct drive CPO switches in 2022 at 51.2T switches. We also have the companies quoting a 30% reduction in power consumption

5) Moving over to Broadcom, we see CPO deployments with the direct drive and 30% reduction in power consumption again.
We now have 3 of the 4 industry leaders using Global Foundries' PDK 1.0 all corroborating a 30% power reduction with direct drive CPO applications.

6) Facebook also recognizes 51.2T Switches to see the beginning of CPO deployment.

7) HG Genuine (Foundry) and the head of the Ethernet Alliance also mentions polymer modulators as the route to obtain direct drive CPO.

8) Jim Marcelli mentions 26% power reduction was achieved in February 2020 when the modulators were running at 2.6Volt with less than 1Volt in the future.

9) Andy Bechtolsheim, the famous engineer, lists Thin Film Lithium Niobate, Barium Titanate, Polymers, and graphene as the only solutions able to achieve 1Volt for direct drive.
Barium Titanate and graphene are still lab projects. This leaves polymers and TFLN. However, we see below that GF agrees there's a high level of difficulty with epi growth in a foundry setting. So this leaves polymers as the solution for low voltage direct drive modulators.

10) Michael Lebby (LWLG) and Andrew Yu (GF) discuss PDKs, how to decrease their cost, and the difficulty of epi growth in a foundry setting.

I would encourage a re watch of the entire interview with Global Foundries VP Andrew Yu.

If you are new to the company, the dots to connect seem faint and vague. However, if you have followed it closely since at least 2020, it is clear as day what is happening in the near term and with which companies. The LWLG CEO is an intellectual known for his conservative approach. Two years ago he was calling LWLG polymers "competing" technology. Then he softened the message to "additive". He then began a run at calling the polymers "transformational", a bit more assertive. Finally, within the last year he changed his message to "truly disruptive and ubiquitous mass-commercialization".

My personal conclusion is that we are doing business with nearly all of the aforementioned companies starting in 2022 for direct drive devices to save the data centers hundreds of millions of dollars on their power bill while tripling the speed of the internet.


References:
1) https://gf.com/press-release/globalfoundries-announces-next-generation-silicon-photonics-solutions-and

2) https://blogs.cisco.com/sp/co-packaged-optics-and-an-open-ecosystem

3) See the comments section of:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/radhanagarajan_datacenter-activity-6754621185788661760-wfbf

4) https://www.marvell.com/company/newsroom/marvell-completes-acquisition-of-inphi.html

5) https://www.broadcom.com/info/optics/cpo#resources

6) At the 1:06:00 mark

7) At the 1:19:40 mark

8) At the 5:45 mark

9) https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/03/10/talking-silicon-photonics-signal-and-noise-with-andy-bechtolsheim/

10) At the 15:45 mark

-Richard great post, worth another look!

[tedpeele]

My last issue is illustrated by the excellent post 95632 by Richard, which this post is a reply to.

Richard's post connects dots in an impressive way. Post 95632 is a great resource for showing that polymers are important to some industry leaders, but it isn't clear to me that there is a vast collaboration involving Lightwave's polymers. GF mentions Ayar Labs for example, which also claims huge power savings, but appears to be working on something other than polymers. I wonder then if the power savings might be possible by technologies other than polymers, so the dots maybe could just as easily connect back to those other technologies and not Lightwave's. HG, for example, says 'maybe not CPO, but something like it'.

That's not to say GF isn't working with Lightwave. I think it is likely that they are. But, just as Polaritin ended up choosing NLM technology for their first product, I think it is possible that the big wigs - while working some on Lightwave's polymers - may end up choosing someone else - perhaps an Ayar for a mass produced product. I welcome any argument against this.

In general the level of secrecy here is high - for me personally it is so high that it is suspicious. While secrets can be kept, in this day and age it is less and less likely, especially when there are multiple players involved..The contrast between the secrecy with Lightwave and the open naming of players, partners, publications by others is striking to me. It causes me to pause a bit even in the presence of some clear indications that some exciting things ARE happening.

I will admit that several of the other issues I have been posting about recently are a factor in my thinking here. If Dr Lebby and Mr Marcelli hadn't rewarded themselves with over $5 million in cash, and the directors hadn't all sold for cash at $15 last December, I'd have a much higher 'trust' level than I do. The secrecy just doesn't help any. Nevertheless, I still own shares because I know nothing is certain, and there are reasons to be excited. Was hoping my review would bring more faith than it has, but it is what it is and again thanks to all of those who took the time to respond and help clear some things up.

Best to all.