Say one thinks NWBO is likely a fail, but believes if it is successful it will be a smash. Despite a high chance of failure, the potential blockbuster success is a mediating factor that could provide a logical basis for investing. Call this Situation A.
But if one thinks NWBO is very likely a bust, and in the low chance of it succeeding it underwhelms, there is less logical incentive to invest because you’re taking on a lot of risk to only get a reward that is more likely to be available elsewhere in the market but with much less risk. Call this Situation B.
I gather from the post to which I reply that you find us in Situation B. If so, is my analysis incorrect? For what payoff do you remain here and if none, why remain invested? My best guess is that you invest a small portion of your portfolio (mad money) on this stock and you are interested in seeing where it goes, but without much risk in it. When I thought about it, that would be the only basis I could see for one sticking with it even if believing we are in Situation B.
I thought it would be fun to try to predict the investment thesis of a frequent poster. Am I close?
(Note my personal belief is we will find ourselves in Situation C: Where there is a company with a very high chance of success, with its success being uncommonly outstanding.
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