Thanks for this well thought out post. Where I have a disagreement with this assessment is surrounding the merger providing no capital and the timing of a potential R/S. The logic makes sense, but I think you are making some big assumptions. Some things to consider:
In my opinion it looks like significant portion of the unrestricted O/S may be moving to the new company at closing. Actually I think this may be the only reason a company of the caliber of a lithium operator in Salton Sea may even be in consideration here. There were 400M shares recently unrestricted with recent T/A change. And potentially up to another 1B shares that based on my observations so far... it is unclear if they have ever changed hands in the public market despite being held at DTC for a long time. Until not long ago, the stated public float was only about 500M shares despite the O/S being 6x higher for a long time. The custodian in this case may control a very significant number of free trading shares which theoretically may be part if this merger transaction, and which could represent more than enough shares to fill out a Reg A offering of the size you described.
Regarding R/S timing, in my opinion, it would not be out of the realm of possibility to see a small R/S much further down the road, intended to qualify the stock for listing on a major exchange. It is not the most likely scenario, of course this is still the OTC wild west after all... but do you see any reason to completely rule out the possibility?
None of us knows what will happen here, but so far I have been very impressed with the progress and I remain optimistic this could see an organic appreciation in price towards $1 if the merger is well executed and truly accretive. Glta
Edited to fix some typos
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